The Dollar is showing signs of falling below the potentially critical pivot point of 80.00 in the early goingtoday. However, it is somewhat surprising that the Dollar is showing weakness in the face of noted slowing fearsin Europe, but apparently sharply falling US Treasury yields are giving off the impression of even slower economicactivity in the US. Apparently the trade thinks the US economy is set to remain slow and that the temporary dragof adverse weather was only a coincidence. With the US economic report slate somewhat thin until Thursday ofthis week and the trade remaining mostly upbeat toward the UK and German recoveries, the Dollar looks to bethe odd man out. However, we would not expect aggressive liquidation in the Dollar, as the alternatives are alsosuspect. Initial support and targeting today is seen at 79.84 and to take control away from the bear camp mightrequire a rally back above 80.19. The Commitments of Traders Futures and Options report as of May 13th for USDollar showed Non-Commercial traders were net short 297 contracts, a decrease of 1,327 contracts. TheCommercial traders were net short 4,611 contracts, a decrease of 781 contracts. The Non-reportable traderswere net long 4,907 contracts, a decrease of 2,109 contracts. Non-Commercial and Non-reportable combinedtraders held a net long position of 4,610 contracts. This represents a decrease of 782 contracts in the net longposition held by these traders.
Technical Outlook: The moving average crossover up (9 above 18) indicates a possible developingshort-term uptrend. Daily stochastics have risen into overbought territory which will tend to support reversal actionif it occurs. A positive signal for trend short-term was given on a close over the 9-bar moving average. It is aslightly negative indicator that the close was under the swing pivot. The next upside objective is 80.26. The nextarea of resistance is around 80.19 and 80.26, while 1st support hits today at 80.04 and below there at 79.96.