While the Dollar forged a significant upward extension on the charts overnight, the market wasn’t ableto hold all of those gains. However, the Dollar has a leg up as sentiment data from Europe was soft and Chineseeconomic data overnight fostered fresh concern toward that region. Another issue helping the Dollar issuggestions from the Fed that it would take a significant change in the current pace of the US recovery to see theFed alter its tapering program. The US scheduled report slate today is more active with the most importantreadings coming from advanced retail sales, which are generally expected to have risen by +0.4%. However, themarket will also see some reaction to weekly chain store sales and a private Small Business Optimism Index. Onthe other hand, with the June Dollar Index to the highs this morning, sitting roughly 135 points above the low fromjust 4 days ago, one might suggest that the Dollar has now factored in an improving economy.
Technical Outlook: Momentum studies are declining, but have fallen to oversold levels. Themarket’s close below the 9-day moving average is an indication the short-term trend remains negative. Themarket’s close below the pivot swing number is a mildly negative setup. The next downside objective is now at79.10. With a reading under 30, the 9-day RSI is approaching oversold levels. The next area of resistance isaround 79.61 and 79.84, while 1st support hits today at 79.25 and below there at 79.10.