GBP/USD Analysis

The pair closed in NY Friday at $1.6851 after rate had been pressed lower during the day (from a high of $1.6939) to $1.6832 on a mix of profit lock in sales and euro-dollar slippage, while the cross met decent support at stg0.8160/50. Rate touched an early low in Asia of $1.6840 before it picked up fresh demand that lifted it to $1.6862, the move seen driven by weekend press reports suggesting that Wednesday’s BOE QIR could lift growth forecasts, which in turn could bring in the chance of a rate hike into Q1 2015.Rate settled between $1.6850/60 for the balance of the session, trading around $1.6858 into Europe. Euro-sterling was contained within a tight range of stg0.8159/65. Although the view for the cross is for an eventual break lower (traders see a break of stg0.8150 opening potential for stg0.8000), short term specs have shown interest to go long at these levels, leaving stops below stg0.8140. A light data calendar for today with sterling focus set on Wednesday and the mentioned BOE QIR as well as employment data. Cable support seen at the 21-dma at $1.6836, with bids seen into $1.6830, a break to expose the May2 NFP react low of $1.6821. Resistance seen at $1.6875/85 ahead of $1.6900.