The Euro earlier this week was not only priced for internal perfection it was also priced for distinct slowingin the US. With some economic cracks in the Euro zone recovery surfacing from Germany and US data hinting atsome improvement, it is clear that the 1.40 Euro level will be a difficult level to return to. Longer term up trendchannel support in the June Euro is seen today at 1.3780 but the 50 day moving average has already beenviolated at 1.3824. Other news undermining the Euro is a decline in the German March Trade surplus and adecline in March adjusted German exports of 1.8% relative to month ago levels. Some bulls might discount theslackening of German data, because of the Ukraine situation, but the Ukraine situation looks to continue to impacttrade, even with Putin asking for a halt in the referendum push.
Technical Outlook: The market made a new contract high on the rally. The daily stochastics gave a bearishindicator with a crossover down. Momentum studies trending lower at mid-range should accelerate a move lowerif support levels are taken out. The close under the 18-day moving average indicates the intermediate-term trendcould be turning down. The outside day down is a negative signal. There could be some early pressure todaygiven the market’s negative setup with the close below the 2nd swing support. The next downside target is now at137.1400. The next area of resistance is around 139.2099 and 140.3800, while 1st support hits today at 137.5900and below there at 137.1400.