With the EU suggesting they remain far away from fresh Russian sanctions they have basically invitedPutin to behave badly again. While the looming ECB meeting might restrain the Euro to start today, we just don’tsee the ECB moving toward fresh easing in an effort to stall the rise in the Euro. In short, the ECB might try todiscourage further interest in the long side of the Euro but that talk will hardly supplant the existing bullish wavetoward the Euro, Swiss and Aussie. Limiting the Euro somewhat is weak German March industry output figuresovernight but the main event of the day will be US initial claims. In our opinion, the up-trend in the Euro is set tocontinue until there is a definitive decline in US claims. We are attempting to enter into a tight legged bear putspread in the Euro, hoping to bank profits on the short put component on the next rally to fresh contract highs.
Technical Outlook: Momentum studies are trending higher but have entered overbought levels. Themarket’s close above the 9-day moving average suggests the short-term trend remains positive. The market tilt isslightly negative with the close under the pivot. The next upside objective is 139.4650. The next area of resistanceis around 139.2700 and 139.4650, while 1st support hits today at 138.9900 and below there at 138.9050.