AUD/USD consolidated Wednesday and briefly dipped below the 21-DMA before finding support at $0.8319. Bears need a close below to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and shift immediate focus to the rising channel base. Bears look for a close below $0.9202 to confirm a break of the channel base with focus shifting to layers of support $0.9121-58 including the 55 & 200-DMA’s. While $0.9319 supports bulls target 2014 highs
RES 4: $0.9431 – 21 day upper Bollinger band
RES 3: $0.9426 – High Apr 11
RES 2: $0.9395 – Hourly resistance Apr 15
RES 1: $0.9377 – High Apr 22
LPRICE: $0.9331
SUP 1: $0.9319 – Low May 7
SUP 2: $0.9256 – Rising daily channel base off Jan 31 low
SUP 3: $0.9202 – Low May 2
SUP 4: $0.9185 – 55-DMA
The sequence of higher daily highs came to a dramatic end on Wednesday with the NZD/USD closing below $0.8691. Bullish pressure has eased and bears now target a break below the $0.8591 May 2 low to confirm a break of the 21-DMA, ending bullish hopes and seeing focus shift to retests of the $0.8501-16 region. The move lower has seen daily studies looking to correct from modestly O/B levels adding weight to the bearish case
RES 4: $0.8832 – 1.382 projection of $0.8516-0.8745
RES 3: $0.8790 – 21 week upper Bollinger band
RES 2: $0.8779 – 2014 High May 6
RES 1: $0.8743 – 21 day upper Bollinger band
LPRICE: $0.8670
SUP 1: $0.8647 – Low May 5
SUP 2: $0.8628 – 21-DMA
SUP 3: $0.8591 – Low May 2
SUP 4: $0.8546 – Low Apr 30
AUD/NZD continued to recover lost ground closing above the 55 & 100-DMA’s in the process. Initial support now shifts to the $1.0728 alternating support/resistance level with bulls initially targeting the NZ$1.0795-1.0810 region. A close above this region is needed to end bearish hopes and see focus shift to the NZ$1.0871-1.0908 region. Bears need a close below NZ$1.0728 to signal a false break higher and shift focus back to the NZ$1.0606-40 region
RES 4: NZ$1.0908 – 38.2% Fibonacci 1.1579-1.0476
RES 3: NZ$1.0871 – High Apr 28
RES 2: NZ$1.0810 – 21-DMA
RES 1: NZ$1.0795 – Low Apr 25 now resistance
LPRICE: NZ$1.0760
SUP 1: NZ$1.0728 – Alternating daily support/resistance
SUP 2: NZ$1.0640 – Low Mar 27
SUP 3: NZ$1.0606 – Low Mar 24
SUP 4: NZ$1.0536 – Monthly low Mar 12
Rallies continue to fail ahead of the key Y95.34 resistance level that has thwarted attempts to head higher for the past two weeks with the 21-DMA now noted just below at Y95.30. Bulls need a close above Y95.34 to shift focus higher and end bearish hopes of tests of the key rising daily channel base. Bears need a close below Y94.25 to confirm a break of the rising daily channel base and see focus shift to 55-DMA and then the 100-DMA (Y93.16).
RES 4: Y96.51 – 2014 High Apr 4
RES 3: Y96.24 – High Apr 23
RES 2: Y96.14 – 21 day upper Bollinger band
RES 1: Y95.34 – High Apr 24
LPRICE: Y95.05
SUP 1: Y94.72 – Low May 7
SUP 2: Y94.60 – Rising daily channel base
SUP 3: Y94.25 – Low May 5
SUP 4: Y94.02 – 55-DMA
EUR/AUD continues to traded sideways within a broad A$1.4840-1.5021 range with 21 & 200-DMAs noted around the lower boundary. Bears continue to look for a close below the 21-DMA to confirm a break of key moving averages and see focus return to the 2014 low. Daily studies are looking to correct from O/B levels and are adding weight to the bearish case. Bulls need a close above A$1.5021 to see overall focus shift to the 100-DMA (A$1.5178).
RES 4: A$1.5164 – High Mar 24
RES 3: A$1.5101 – 38.2% Fibonacci 1.5822-1.4654
RES 2: A$1.5044 – 55-DMA
RES 1: A$1.5021 – High Apr 29
LPRICE: A$1.4904
SUP 1: A$1.4874 – 200-DMA
SUP 2: A$1.4846 – 21-DMA
SUP 3: A$1.4654 – 2014 low Apr 10
SUP 4: A$1.4560 – Low Nov 22 2013
Last week’s bearish close has been followed up with a continuation lower, fresh 2014 and 6 year lows and another relatively bearish close. Bulls now need a close above the previous 2014 low at Krw1030.1 to ease the current bearish pressure with a close above Krw1042.0 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and shift immediate focus to the Krw1050.6 level. For now bearish focus dominates with sub Krw1000.0 levels remaining targeted.
RES 4: Krw1042.0 – High Apr 22
RES 3: Krw1039.1 – 21-DMA
RES 2: Krw1034.4 – Low Apr 17 now resistance
RES 1: Krw1030.1 – Previous 2014 low Apr 30 now resistance
LPRICE: Krw1022.4
SUP 1: Krw1022.5 – 2014 low May 7
SUP 2: Krw995.6 – Monthly low July 10 2008
SUP 3: Krw971.3 – Monthly Low Apr 7 2008
SUP 4: Krw955.9 – Low Mar 7 2008
USD/SGD broke the sequence of lower daily lows on Wednesday with an inside day that closed above the previous initial resistance at Sgd1.2485 and eased the bearish pressure a little. Bulls now look for a close above the 21-DMA to hint at a bigger bounce back towards the layers of resistance in the Sgd1.2595-1.2603 region where the 55 & 200-DMA’s are located. While the 21-DMA caps bears will continue to target the 2014 lows.
RES 4: Sgd1.2595- High Apr 25
RES 3: Sgd1.2570- High Apr 30 & May 2
RES 2: Sgd1.2527- 21-DMA
RES 1: Sgd1.2520- Hourly resistance May 5
LPRICE: Sgd1.2491
SUP 1: Sgd1.2468 – 21 day lower Bollinger band
SUP 2: Sgd1.2450 – 2014 low Apr 9
SUP 3: Sgd1.2425 – Low Nov 19 2013
SUP 4: Sgd1.2406 – Low Nov 5 2013
