GBP/USD Analysis

The pair closed in NY Wednesday at $1.6872 after rate had recovered off intraday lows of $1.6805 to $1.6902, the move up aided by the release of very poor US GDP data which weakened the dollar across the board. Rate had pulled back to $1.6872 into the FOMC announcement, recovered to $1.6888 before drifting off into the close. A Labour Day holiday thinned Asia session (most European centres will also be closed; Tokyo in the middle of Golden Week though open today) produced a very subdued overnight session with cable consolidating Wednesday’s gains between $1.6870/82. UK Nationwide house price data due at 0600GMT ahead of UK mortgage data and UK mfg PMI data at 0830GMT, the latter the main focus. Median forecast is for an easing to 55.4 vs last 55.6, though some see potential for a lower reading based on the easing inmomentum in recently released export orders and new orders data. However, sterling seen holding firm with any resultant dips likely to attract some decent demand. Offers remain in place from above $1.6900 with interest seen placed to $1.6920, more between $1.6940/50. Support $1.6870 ahead of $1.6850/40 ($1.6842 61.8% $1.6805-1.6902).