A temporary flare up rally overnight failed to hold in the wake of a sharp drop in March Construction data.However, the trade seems to believe BOJ suggestions that they are proceeding toward their inflation goals. SomeBOJ members think that Japan is getting beyond the sales tax hike and that should clear the way for an eventualdecline back down to the April lows of 96.00.
Technical Outlook: The downside crossover of the 9 and 18 bar moving average is a negativesignal. Declining momentum studies in the neutral zone will tend to reinforce lower price action. A negative signalfor trend short-term was given on a close under the 9-bar moving average. The market tilt is slightly negative withthe close under the pivot. The next downside target is now at 97.19. The next area of resistance is around 97.62and 97.76, while 1st support hits today at 97.34 and below there at 97.19.