The Dollar has rebounded overnight in the face of rising Ukraine threats but the prospect of easingfrom the ECB might be another source of strength for the Greenback. Apparently the trade has realigned itsthinking toward the US economy in the wake of last week’s initial claims decline and the surprise rise in US PPIfigures. The trade will probably react to Advance retail sales figures later this morning especially if the readingsmanage a gain in excess of +0.3%. Concern that Russia will use natural gas as a weapon against another layer ofsanctions, might leave the Dollar with an edge relative to the Euro. The Commitments of Traders Futures andOptions report as of April 8th for US Dollar showed Non-Commercial traders were net long 501 contracts, anincrease of 10,699 contracts which represents a change from a net short to net long position. The Commercialtraders were net short 7,513 contracts, an increase of 11,304 contracts which represents a change from a netlong to net short position. The Non-reportable traders were net long 7,013 contracts, an increase of 605 contracts.Non-Commercial and Non-reportable combined traders held a net long position of 7,514 contracts. These tradershave gone from a net short to a net long position. The bull camp has an edge with the lows last week too cheapfor the strength of recent US data. Look for a near term rise back above the 80.00 level.
Technical Outlook: Momentum studies are declining, but have fallen to oversold levels. Themarket’s close below the 9-day moving average is an indication the short-term trend remains negative. Themarket’s close below the pivot swing number is a mildly negative setup. The next downside objective is now at79.10. With a reading under 30, the 9-day RSI is approaching oversold levels. The next area of resistance isaround 79.61 and 79.84, while 1st support hits today at 79.25 and below there at 79.10.