The Euro has already seen a noted range down washout on the charts with several EU officialssuggesting easing might be required to deflate the Euro exchange rate that should embolden the bear camp. Assuggested already we also think that the fear of a disruption of natural gas flow from the Ukraine bottleneck isundermining for the European economy. However, the Euro saw some support this morning from news of a rise inEuro zone Industrial output, but that news merely seems to be slowing the unfolding washout on the charts. TheCommitments of Traders Futures and Options report as of April 8th for Euro showed Non-Commercial traderswere net long 22,546 contracts, a decrease of 12,060 contracts. The Commercial traders were net short 2,411contracts, a decrease of 12,057 contracts. The Non-reportable traders were net short 20,135 contracts, adecrease of 3 contracts. Non-Commercial and Non-reportable combined traders held a net long position of 2,411contracts. This represents a decrease of 12,057 contracts in the net long position held by these traders. Nearterm downside targeting in the March Euro is seen at 1.3778 and perhaps not until the 1.37 level if US data showsany sign of improving later this week.
Technical Outlook: The moving average crossover up (9 above 18) indicates a possible developing shorttermuptrend. Momentum studies are trending higher but have entered overbought levels. The market’s closeabove the 9-day moving average suggests the short-term trend remains positive. The close over the pivot swingis a somewhat positive setup. The near-term upside objective is at 139.2500. The next area of resistance isaround 139.0500 and 139.2500, while 1st support hits today at 138.6300 and below there at 138.4100.