Not surprisingly the Dollar remains under pressure as the Fed meeting minutes were a little moredovish than recent market expectations. While we can’t rule out a further slide to 79.41 in the June Dollar, the realquestion for the trade is whether the US economy is moving forward. If the US continues to show signs of reemergingfrom the weather induced drag then the Dollar should find solid support relatively soon. Expectations ofa decline in US initial claims should provide some support but a wave of central banker speeches today mighttake some of the focus away from US data flows. Ideas that Chinese was merely considering additional stimulushas lost its influence and for the Dollar to regain its footing and recoil from the consolidation lows that sit justunder today’s market, probably requires a decline in claims, a decline in ongoing claims and some positive USequity market earnings.
Technical Outlook: Momentum studies are declining, but have fallen to oversold levels. Themarket’s close below the 9-day moving average is an indication the short-term trend remains negative. Themarket’s close below the pivot swing number is a mildly negative setup. The next downside objective is now at79.10. With a reading under 30, the 9-day RSI is approaching oversold levels. The next area of resistance isaround 79.61 and 79.84, while 1st support hits today at 79.25 and below there at 79.10.