The Dollar is on a softer track this morning despite evidence of somewhat slack economic readingsfrom Japan and from knock-on weakness in global equities. One might have expected to see the Dollar holdserve in the wake of somewhat positive Non-farm payroll readings at the end of last week. In fact, some Dollarbulls think that the Greenback is poised to strengthen into the upcoming release of the FOMC meeting minutes.However, the Dollar might be under some pressure today because of German Industrial Output results, especiallywith the US economic report slate today rather quiet. The Dollar will see a speech from the Fed’s Bullard aroundmid-session and a consumer credit result later in the trading session. The Commitments of Traders Futures andOptions report as of April 1st for US Dollar showed Non-Commercial traders were net short 10,198 contracts, adecrease of 853 contracts. The Commercial traders were net long 3,791 contracts, a decrease of 1,467 contracts.The Non-reportable traders were net long 6,408 contracts, an increase of 615 contracts. Non-Commercial andNon-reportable combined traders held a net short position of 3,790 contracts. This represents a decrease of 1,468contracts in the net short position held by these traders. The path of least resistance is pointing downward, but nocurrency looks to have a dominating edge at the start of the new trading week.
Technical Outlook: Momentum studies are declining, but have fallen to oversold levels. Themarket’s close below the 9-day moving average is an indication the short-term trend remains negative. Themarket’s close below the pivot swing number is a mildly negative setup. The next downside objective is now at79.10. With a reading under 30, the 9-day RSI is approaching oversold levels. The next area of resistance isaround 79.61 and 79.84, while 1st support hits today at 79.25 and below there at 79.10.