The Dollar has managed to hold above this week’s consolidation lows this week but for some playersthat suggests the Dollar has discounted partially supportive data. However, the Dollar saw its bullish trackdeflated in the wake of comments from the Fed’s Yellen earlier this week that seemed to take back “rising rate”timing suggestions from the last FOMC meeting statements. Others might suggest that US data this week hasbeen disappointing, as the economy has yet to show it has definitively come out from under the drag fromadverse winter weather. Another issue that might be holding back the Dollar is somewhat favorable Euro zonedata and ideas that the ECB won’t pull the trigger on extra stimulus later this week. All things considered the hopefor a 200,000 US Non Farm payroll gain on Friday has firmed up support in the Dollar down at 80.11, but so farthat sentiment hasn’t definitively put the Dollar in favor. The trade will see a private US jobs release from ADPlater this morning, with initial estimates for that report put at +200K.
Technical Outlook: Momentum studies are declining, but have fallen to oversold levels. Themarket’s close below the 9-day moving average is an indication the short-term trend remains negative. Themarket’s close below the pivot swing number is a mildly negative setup. The next downside objective is now at79.10. With a reading under 30, the 9-day RSI is approaching oversold levels. The next area of resistance isaround 79.61 and 79.84, while 1st support hits today at 79.25 and below there at 79.10.