The Dollar appears to have made a significant overnight range up move that failed to hold and thathints at a quasi blow off top. Given the bounce off the March lows and the chart reversal action this morning, the Dollar bulls might need to see some positive progression in US scheduled data this morning. Today’s USscheduled data flow presents ISM Chicago Business survey and a Texas Manufacturing Outlook survey buttraders might begin to look forward to this Friday’s monthly Non Farm payroll report. Initial estimates for the keyUS employment report this Friday call for a +175,000 to +195,000 gain in Non-farm payrolls. If fresh surveys onPayrolls inch up above last months reading, that could resurrect the bid for the Greenback. However, a bit of backand fill action could pave the way for a pull back to support down at 80.10. The Commitments of Traders Futuresand Options report as of March 25th for US Dollar showed Non-Commercial traders were net short 11,051contracts, a decrease of 1,116 contracts. The Commercial traders were net long 5,258 contracts, a decrease of1,785 contracts. The Non-reportable traders were net long 5,793 contracts, an increase of 667 contracts. Non-Commercial and Non-reportable combined traders held a net short position of 5,258 contracts. This represents adecrease of 1,783 contracts in the net short position held by these traders. With the rally from the COT reportmark off date, the Dollar has probably shifted from a net spec short, to a net spec long, but given the relative levelof the spec long in the Dollar, the market is closer to a technical balance than to an overbought condition.
Technical Outlook:Momentum studies are declining, but have fallen to oversold levels. Themarket’s close below the 9-day moving average is an indication the short-term trend remains negative. Themarket’s close below the pivot swing number is a mildly negative setup. The next downside objective is now at79.10. With a reading under 30, the 9-day RSI is approaching oversold levels. The next area of resistance isaround 79.61 and 79.84, while 1st support hits today at 79.25 and below there at 79.10.