A reversal from last week’s spike low hints at an interim low in the Euro. A slight toning down of anxietytoward the Ukraine and positive German retail sales results seems to have shifted sentiment in favor of the bullcamp in the Euro. Holding back the Euro this morning is somewhat slack Euro zone inflation readings, somewhatrobust early estimates for this Friday’s US non farm payroll report and ideas that the ECB might offer up someeasing at this week’s meeting. The Commitments of Traders Futures and Options report as of March 25th for Euroshowed Non-Commercial traders were net long 40,334 contracts, a decrease of 11,506 contracts. TheCommercial traders were net short 21,292 contracts, a decrease of 12,261 contracts. The Non-reportable traderswere net short 19,040 contracts, an increase of 753 contracts. Non-Commercial and Non-reportable combinedtraders held a net long position of 21,294 contracts. This represents a decrease of 12,259 contracts in the netlong position held by these traders. Support in the June Euro moves up to 1.3747 and resistance is seen up at1.3826.
Technical Outlook: The cross over and close above the 40-day moving average is an indication the longertermtrend has turned positive. Daily stochastics are trending lower but have declined into oversold territory. Themarket’s short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day moving average. The upside dailyclosing price reversal gives the market a bullish tilt. The close over the pivot swing is a somewhat positive setup.The next downside target is 136.7550. The next area of resistance is around 137.8899 and 138.1549, while 1stsupport hits today at 137.1900 and below there at 136.7550.