The sharp pullback from fresh 2014 highs last week combined with correcting O/B daily studies is a concern for bulls with a close above Friday’s high needed to take the pressure off further tests of the rising daily channel base. Bears are now looking for a break of the $0.8499 Mar 20 low to confirm a break of the rising channel and see immediate focus turn to the $0.8141-45 region and then the $0.8244-0.8345 region below.
The failure to break below NZ$1.0535 saw the AUD/NZD pop above the falling daily channel top with O/S daily studies now correcting. This increases the risk of a retest of layers of resistance in the NZ$1.0668-1.0759 region with bulls needing a close above NZ$1.0759 to see overall focus shift higher to the NZ$1.0876-1.0945 region. Bears need a close below NZ$1.0578 to see bearish pressure re-emerge but correcting O/S studies may limit downside follow through.
The break and close above the Y92.82 level on Friday hints at a move higher that initially targets the Y93.43-59 region. Bulls need to see a close above to target the key Y94.46-59 region where 2014 highs are noted. While Y93.59 caps, bears will continue to look for a move lower that initially targets the 200-DMA and then the Y91.18 low from Mar 17. A close below the 100-DMA is needed to see the immediate focus turn bearish once more.
Bears continue to target the A$1.5148 Mar 6 low and then the 100-DMA beneath while the A$1.5368 Mar 18 high caps. Bulls need a close above A$1.5254 to ease the renewed bearish pressure, while a close above the A$1.5368 is needed to shift overall focus back to the A$1.5537 Mar 12 high. The 21 day lower Bollinger band supported Friday and comes in around A$1.5158 today. Given closes below are a rarity, any dips below may lack follow through.
The move higher continued Thursday with USD/KRW remaining capped at the 200-DMA. While the 200-DMA caps, potential exists for a correction lower with bears now needing a close back below Friday’s Krw1078.1 low to see immediate focus shift to retests of the Krw1063.6-1070.0 support region. Bulls continue to look for a close above the 200-DMA to target the 2014 high and then the Krw1108.4 low from early Aug 2013
The sharp pullback from ahead of Thursday’s fresh 2 month high and the relatively bearish close are a concern for the bullish continuation that is targeting a retest of the 2014 high at Sgd1.2830. A close below Sgd1.2718 is now needed to hint at a deeper correction with a close below Sgd1.2700 needed to see focus shift lower to layers of support in the Sgd1.2624-33 region including the 200-DMA (Sgd1.2624) and 100-DMA (Sgd1.2628).