The ranges in the yen this week have been unusually narrow and that highlights a mostly stabile to positiveJapanese economic condition, but that also suggests the trade isn’t convinced which way to play the safehaven/carry trade theme. Pushed into the market we would prefer to sell a rally in the Yen as we think globalmacro economic sentiment is overly negative and a return to new all time highs in US equity measures andimproved US data ahead, will restart a slide in the Yen that could culminate in a yen down around 95.00 into April.
Technical Outlook: The moving average crossover up (9 above 18) indicates a possibledeveloping short-term uptrend. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication.Momentum studies trending lower at mid-range could accelerate a price break if support levels are broken. Themarket’s short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day moving average. The market tilt isslightly negative with the close under the pivot. The next downside target is 97.39. The next area of resistance isaround 97.85 and 98.02, while 1st support hits today at 97.53 and below there at 97.39.