It took the Dollar a while to regain its footing in the wake of the FOMC statement that surprised someplayers. However, polls ahead of the FOMC largely expected a tapering move and that mitigated the initial upsidetrack in the Greenback. On the other hand, the trade has come away from the FOMC meeting with the idea thatthe Fed has shifted toward a more hawkish stance and that is probably giving the Dollar most of its upwardmomentum. In retrospect, the Dollar deserves some short covering because of the Fed’s stance but to keep theupward track in place and extend gains even further probably requires something positive from active USscheduled data flows later this morning. Expectations for US initial claims call for a rise and that news couldcountervail expected gains in leaders and the Philly Fed Business Outlook survey. A 50% retracement of theJanuary through February slide in the Dollar gives an initial recovery targeting of 80.51.
Technical Outlook: Momentum studies are declining, but have fallen to oversold levels. Themarket’s close below the 9-day moving average is an indication the short-term trend remains negative. Themarket’s close below the pivot swing number is a mildly negative setup. The next downside objective is now at79.10. With a reading under 30, the 9-day RSI is approaching oversold levels. The next area of resistance isaround 79.61 and 79.84, while 1st support hits today at 79.25 and below there at 79.10.