The AUD/USD marginally dipped below the 21-DMA ($0.9004) again on Friday before bouncing to retest the 100-DMA. The move below Friday’s low to start the new week sees bears initially targeting the 55-DMA and $0.8875-0.8926 support region with a close below the $0.8875 level needed to see overall focus shift to the 2014 low. Bulls need a close above the 100-DMA to ease bearish pressure.
R 4: $0.9158 – 200-DMA
R 3: $0.9133 – High Mar 7
R 2: $0.9104 – High Mar 13
R 1: $0.9045 – 100-DMA
LP: $0.8994
S 1: $0.8926 – 55-DMA
S 2: $0.8907 – Rising daily channel base
S 3: $0.8875 – Low Feb 5
S 4: $0.8875 – Low Feb 5
Following Thursday’s fresh 2014 and 10 month highs the NZD/USD managed an inside day to end the week with a relatively bearish close. With daily tech studies very overbought and looking to correct the bearish close is of concern for a bullish continuation with immediate focus shifting to a retest of the $0.8507 level. A close below hints at cracks in the uptrend while bears look for a close below $0.8425 to target $0.8244.
R 4: $0.8676 – 2013 high Apr 11 2013
R 3: $0.8667 – rising daily channel top
R 2: $0.8605 – 2014 high Mar 13
R 1: $0.8563 – High Mar 13
LP: $0.8534
S 1: $0.8507 – Hourly breakout level Mar 13
S 2: $0.8425 – Low Mar 12
S 3: $0.8394 – 21-DMA
S 4: $0.8372 – Hourly support Mar 4
Bearish focus firmly remains with the pair within sight of the 2014 low and the 2005 low noted just below. Daily tech studies remain oversold and are the only negative for a sustained move lower as the pair hovers above fresh 2 month lows. A close above the NZ$1.0642 high from Wednesday remains needed to ease bearish pressure while a close above the 21-DMA and 55-DMA (NZ$1.0741) remains needed to end bearish aspirations
R 4: NZ$1.0727 – 21-DMA
R 3: NZ$1.0703 – High Mar 10
R 2: NZ$1.0642 – High Mar 12
R 1: NZ$1.0600 – Hourly resistance Mar 13
LP: NZ$1.0544
S 1: NZ$1.0535 – Low Mar 13
S 2: NZ$1.0492 – 2014 low Jan 24
S 3: NZ$1.0435 – 2005 low Dec 5 2005
S 4: NZ$1.0374 – 21 week lower Bollinger band
Lower daily lows every day last week tell the story for the AUD/JPY with immediate focus on the rising daily channel base to start the new week and bearish pressure continuing to dominate. A close above the 21-DMA is needed to ease bearish pressure that is targeting the Y90.08 support and then the 2014 lows below. Daily studies are supportive of further downside with room to move before becoming oversold.
R 4: Y93.59 – High Mar 10
R 3: Y93.43 – High Mar 11
R 2: Y92.50 – 100-DMA
R 1: Y92.11 – 21-DMA
LP: Y91.16
S 1: Y90.84 – Rising daily channel base
S 2: Y90.52 – 21 day lower Bollinger band
S 3: Y90.08 – Low Mar 3
S 4: Y88.27 – 2014 low Feb 3
ERU/AUD continues to find support ahead of the A$1.5284-1.5310 support region with bears looking for a close below this region to hint at further downside that initially targets the A$1.4987-1.5148 region. Bulls are looking for a close above the A$1.5579 high from last week to confirm the bullish focus and see hopes of a retest of 2014 highs return although initial focus will shift to the A$1.5668 high from Jan 28.
R 4: A$1.5668 – High Jan 28
R 3: A$1.5579 – High Jan 31
R 2: A$1.5537 – High Mar 12
R 1: A$1.5410 – Hourly resistance Mar 13
LP: A$1.5400
S 1: A$1.5310 – High Mar 7 now support
S 2: A$1.5305 – 21-DMA
S 3: A$1.5284 – Rising daily channel base
S 4: A$1.5148 – Low Mar 6
