The Euro bulls have to be cheered by the Euro’s capacity to weave its way through a negative US Non-Farm Payroll result at the end of last week. In fact, with the Euro sitting just under its recent highs it would seemlike favorable US data has in a way underpinned the Euro at its recent highs. Apparently residual concern towardthe Ukraine and prospect of fresh easing from the ECB is of little concern to the Euro bulls perhaps because thelatest COT positioning report failed to show an overbought condition. In fact, the Commitments of Traders Futuresand Options report as of March 4th for Euro showed the Non-Commercial and Non-reportable combined tradersheld a net long position of only 5,103 contracts. With traders seeing a shift from a net short to a net long positionin the latest COT report measurements, that might leave the Euro with enough potential buying capacity to clawout more new highs ahead.
Technical Outlook: A new contract high was made on the rally. Studies are showing positive momentumbut are now in overbought territory, so some caution is warranted. The close above the 9-day moving average is apositive short-term indicator for trend. The market has a slightly positive tilt with the close over the swing pivot.The next upside target is 139.4175. With a reading over 70, the 9-day RSI is approaching overbought levels. Thenext area of resistance is around 139.0550 and 139.4175, while 1st support hits today at 138.4250 and belowthere at 138.1575.