Asian Currencies Technicals

The rally to fresh 2014 and 3 month highs last week saw AUD/USD close above the 100-DMA for the first time since late Nov on Thursday before pulling back from ahead of the 200-DMA on Friday and closing back below the 100-DMA. The 100-DMA capped to start the new week and bears will look for a close below $0.8977 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and see immediate focus shift lower to a retest of the rising daily channel base
R 4: $0.9208 – 50.0% Fibonacci 0.9754-0.8662
R 3: $0.9164 – 200-DMA
R 2: $0.9133 – High Mar 7
R 1: $0.9070 – 100-DMA
LP: $0.9015
S 1: $0.9001 – 21-DMA
S 2: $0.8977 – Low Mar 6
S 3: $0.8921 – 55-DMA
S 4: $0.8879 – Rising daily channel base

The daily Slow Stochastic study continues to threaten a bearish cross from O/B levels which may start to weigh with bears initially looking for a dip back to the 21-DMA with a close below needed to hint at a deeper correction that targets the Feb 20 low. Above $0.8544 is needed to kick start bullish momentum while a close below $0.8432 is needed to ease bullish pressure and see immediate focus shift to retests of the 21-DMA.

R 4: $0.8677 – 2013 High Apr 11
R 3: $0.8586 – Monthly high Apr 30
R 2: $0.8555 – High May 6
R 1: $0.8544 – Monthly high Oct 22
LP: $0.8464
S 1: $0.8432 – Previous daily resistance now support
S 2: $0.8372 – Hourly support Mar 4
S 3: $0.8355 – 21-DMA
S 4: $0.8244 – Low Feb 20

AUD/NZD stalled ahead of the 55-DMA on Friday with the 21-DMA just above. Layers of resistance remain in the NZ$1.0764-1.0890 region with a close above needed to see focus shift to retests of the 2014 high. Bulls need to see a close above the 21-DMA to hint at further topside while bears are looking for a close below the NZ$1.0633 Mar 3 low to confirm a shift lower in focus that targets the 2014 low. Daily studies are looking to correct from O/S levels.

R 4: NZ$1.0858 – Hourly resistance Feb 20
R 3: NZ$1.0774 – 21-DMA
R 2: NZ$1.0764 – 55-DMA
R 1: NZ$1.0703 – High Mar 10
LP: NZ$1.0650
S 1: NZ$1.0633 – Low Mar 3
S 2: NZ$1.0602 – Falling daily channel base
S 3: NZ$1.0570 – Low Jan 29
S 4: NZ$1.0492 – 2014 low Jan 24

The pullback to start the new week marginally traded below the Y92.96 previous initial support with bears now looking for a close below Monday’s low to hint at a deeper correction with initial focus then shifting to the 200-DMA. Bulls need to see a close above the Nov Monthly high at Y94.59 to kick start bullish momentum and see focus shift to the Oct monthly high at Y95.67. A close below the 200-DMA would see focus return to Feb monthly lows

R 4: Y95.93 – 50.0% Fibonacci 105.42-86.43
R 3: Y95.67 – Monthly high Oct 22
R 2: Y94.59 – Monthly high Nov 20
R 1: Y93.59 – High Mar 10
LP: Y93.10
S 1: Y92.91 – Low Mar 10
S 2: Y92.38 – Hourly support Mar 6
S 3: Y91.85 – 200-DMA
S 4: Y91.35 – Low Mar 5

The 55-DMA has supported to start the new week as bears continue to look for a close below the A$1.5166 support to see immediate focus shift lower to retests of the A$1.4987-1.5054 region. While the 55-DMA supports bulls will target a break above A$1.5403 with initial focus currently on a test of the A$1.5496 Mar 3 high. Bulls need to see a close above this level to shift overall focus back to retests of the 2014 high.

R 4: A$1.5668 – High Jan 28
R 3: A$1.5496 – High Mar 3
R 2: A$1.5445 – 21 day upper Bollinger band
R 1: A$1.5403 – High Mar 4
LP: A$1.5380
S 1: A$1.5166 – Low Mar 6
S 2: A$1.5090 – Low Feb 18
S 3: A$1.5054 – 100-DMA
S 4: A$1.4987 – Monthly low Feb 12