The rally to fresh 2014 and 3 mth highs last week saw the AUD/USD close above the 100-DMA on Thursday before pulling back from ahead of the 200-DMA on Friday and closing back below the 100-DMA with a relatively bearish close. Bulls will need to see a close above the 200-DMA to kick start bullish momentum while bears will initially be looking for a retest of the 21-DMA with a close below needed to hint at a deeper correction.
R 4: $0.9248 – High Nov 22
R 3: $0.9208 – 50.0% Fibonacci 0.9754-0.8662
R 2: $0.9168 – 200-DMA
R 1: $0.9133 – High Mar 7
LP: $0.9030
S 1: $0.8999 – 21-DMA
S 2: $0.8977 – Low Mar 6
S 3: $0.8920 – 55-DMA
S 4: $0.8872 – Rising daily channel base
Fresh 2014 highs for the third consecutive day on Friday saw the NZD/USD fall just short of the Oct monthly high before dipping back towards initial support. The daily Slow Stochastic study is threatening a bearish cross from O/B levels which may limit any further topside follow through with bears initially looking for a dip back to the 21-DMA with a close below needed to hint at a deeper correction that targets the Feb 20 low. $0.8544 remains key resistance.
R 4: $0.8677 – 2013 High Apr 11
R 3: $0.8586 – Monthly high Apr 30
R 2: $0.8555 – High May 6
R 1: $0.8544 – Monthly high Oct 22
LP: $0.8440
S 1: $0.8432 – Previous daily resistance now support
S 2: $0.8372 – Hourly support Mar 4
S 3: $0.8346 – 21-DMA
S 4: $0.8244 – Low Feb 20
AUD/NZD stalled ahead of the 55-DMA on Friday. Layers of resistance remain in the NZ$1.0769-1.0890 region with a close above needed to see focus shift to retests of the 2014 high. Bulls need to see a close above the 21-DMA to hint at further topside while bears are looking for a close below the NZ$1.0633 Mar 3 low to confirm a shift lower in focus that targets the 2014 low. Daily studies are looking to correct from O/S levels.
R 4: NZ$1.0890 – High Feb 20
R 3: NZ$1.0858 – Hourly resistance Feb 20
R 2: NZ$1.0783 – 21-DMA
R 1: NZ$1.0769 – 55-DMA
LP: NZ$1.0700
S 1: NZ$1.0653 – Low Mar 5
S 2: NZ$1.0633 – Low Mar 3
S 3: NZ$1.0607 – Falling daily channel base
S 4: NZ$1.0570 – Low Jan 29
The bounce from Monday’s low continued on Friday with the AUD/JPY touching fresh 2014 and 4 month highs before correcting lower to end the week on a relatively bearish note. Bulls take comfort in the fact that studies are correcting higher with room to move but need to see a close above the Y94.59 Nov monthly high to target Y95.67. Bears are looking for a close below the previous resistance at Y92.96 to hint at a correction
R 4: Y98.17 – 61.8% Fibonacci 105.42-86.43
R 3: Y95.93 – 50.0% Fibonacci 105.42-86.43
R 2: Y95.67 – Monthly high Oct 22
R 1: Y94.59 – Monthly high Nov 20
LP: Y93.00
S 1: Y92.96 – Previous daily resistance now support
S 2: Y92.38 – Hourly support Mar 6
S 3: Y91.85 – 200-DMA
S 4: Y91.35 – Low Mar 5
EUR/AUD bounced a little to close above the 21-DMA (A$1.5247) on Friday with bulls looking for a close above the Mar 4 high to ease bearish pressure while a close above the Mar 3 high is needed to confirm bullish pressure and see the 2014 highs targeted once more. Bears are looking for a close below Thursday’s low to reconfirm bearish pressure and see immediate focus shift to a retest of the Feb monthly low
R 4: A$1.5668 – High Jan 28
R 3: A$1.5496 – High Mar 3
R 2: A$1.5426 – 21 day upper Bollinger band
R 1: A$1.5403 – High Mar 4
LP: A$1.5344
S 1: A$1.5166 – Low Mar 6
S 2: A$1.5090 – Low Feb 18
S 3: A$1.5030 – 100-DMA
S 4: A$1.4987 – Monthly low Feb 12
