Evidence of US slowing from the weather is surfacing from numerous sources. The Fed Beige Book,ADP, Non Manufacturing PMI, Fed speeches, Costco sales readings and many others and that would seem tosuggest that the upcoming US Non Farm payroll reading will be soft. However, it also appears as if the marketsare generally poised to see the US February payroll report pass as a one off result of adverse weather and notsomething more significant. In short, the path of least resistance is down in the Dollar because of the track of databut one has to wonder how much of a weak reading on Friday will be factored in ahead of the release. Near termdownside targeting in the March Dollar is seen down at 79.95 and perhaps down at 79.85. The path of leastresistance is pointing down but the trade has had trouble holding the Dollar below the 80.00 level.
Technical Outlook: Momentum studies are rising from mid-range, which could accelerate a movehigher if resistance levels are penetrated. The market’s close below the 9-day moving average is an indication theshort-term trend remains negative. The market could take on a defensive posture with the daily closing pricereversal down. It is a slightly negative indicator that the close was under the swing pivot. The near-term upsidetarget is at 80.36. The next area of resistance is around 80.21 and 80.36, while 1st support hits today at 80.00and below there at 79.92.