AUD/USD has traded at fresh 2014 highs and the highest level since mid-Dec. Immediate focus is on a continuation higher that initially targets the key 200-DMA with a close above last seen in Apr 2013. Initial support is noted at the $0.9040 level on the hourlies with a close below needed to ease the bullish pressure. Bears will be looking for a close below Thursday’s low to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and target the $0.8875 Feb 5 low.
R 4: $0.9337 – 61.8% Fibonacci 0.9754-0.8662
R 3: $0.9248 – High Nov 22
R 2: $0.9208 – 50.0% Fibonacci 0.9754-0.8662
R 1: $0.9170 – 200-DMA
LP: $0.9093
S 1: $0.9040 – Hourly support Mar 6
S 2: $0.8994 – 21-DMA
S 3: $0.8977 – Low Mar 6
S 4: $0.8918 – 55-DMA
Fresh 2014 highs the past two days and a relatively bullish close see the bulls looking comfortable and initially targeting the $0.8541 Oct 2013 monthly high with the 2013 high targeted above that. Bears are looking for a close below the $0.8432 level to ease the bullish focus as little with below the 21-DMA needed to shift overall focus lower. The pair has closed well above the 21 day upper Bolli ($0.8442) and may see consolidation today.
R 4: $0.8677 – 2013 High Apr 11
R 3: $0.8586 – Monthly high Apr 30
R 2: $0.8555 – High May 6
R 1: $0.8544 – Monthly high Oct 22
LP: $0.8478
S 1: $0.8432 – Previous daily resistance now support
S 2: $0.8370 – Hourly support Mar 4
S 3: $0.8336 – 21-DMA
S 4: $0.8244 – Low Feb 20
The close above the NZ$1.0720 level, albeit marginal, has eased the bearish focus and combined with correcting oversold daily tech studies sees bulls initially targeting a test of the 21 and 55-DMA’s. The NZ$1.0950-71 region remains key resistance with the 100-DMA noted at NZ$1.0971 and a close above needed to target the 200-DMA (NZ$1.1265). Bears are looking for a close below Thursday’s low to ease the current bullish pressure
R 4: NZ$1.0890 – High Feb 20
R 3: NZ$1.0858 – Hourly resistance Feb 20
R 2: NZ$1.0790 – 21-DMA
R 1: NZ$1.0772 – 55-DMA
LP: NZ$1.0721
S 1: NZ$1.0669 – Low Mar 6
S 2: NZ$1.0630 – Low Feb 28
S 3: NZ$1.0570 – Low Jan 29
S 4: NZ$1.0553 – Low Jan 27
The bounce continued on Thursday with the AUD/JPY taking out the previous key resistance at Y92.96 with immediate focus having shifted to the Y94.06-59 region with overall focus on the Y95.67 Oct 2013 monthly high. Bulls will take comfort in correcting oversold daily studies while bears are now looking for a close below the Y92.38 hourly support to ease the immediate bullish pressure with below the 200-DMA needed to end bullish aspirations.
R 4: Y95.93 – 50.0% Fibonacci 105.42-86.43
R 3: Y95.67 – Monthly high Oct 22
R 2: Y94.59 – Monthly high Nov 20
R 1: Y94.06 – 2014 high Jan 6
LP: Y93.70
S 1: Y93.05 – Hourly support Mar 6
S 2: Y92.38 – Hourly support Mar 6
S 3: Y91.87 – 200-DMA
S 4: Y91.35 – Low Mar 5
EUR/AUD continues to retreat from Monday’s high with the pair consolidating below the 55-DMA that previously supported. Bears are now looking for a close below Thursday’s low to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and rising daily channel base and see immediate focus shift to the 100-DMA. Bulls need to see a close above Tuesday’s high to ease bearish pressure with a close above Monday’s high needed to kick start bullish momentum
R 4: A$1.5668 – High Jan 28
R 3: A$1.5496 – High Mar 3
R 2: A$1.5403 – High Mar 4
R 1: A$1.5322 – 55-DMA
LP: A$1.5235
S 1: A$1.5166 – Low Mar 6
S 2: A$1.5090 – Low Feb 18
S 3: A$1.5030 – 100-DMA
S 4: A$1.4987 – Monthly low Feb 12
