Heading into this week’s employment data investors may attribute weaknumbers to the weather.This view is not entirely unjustified. Historically there has been a -20%correlation between heating degree days (e.g. cold weather) and NFP misses.Unusually cold weather in January may have accounted for nearly half of the67k disappointment, and the second biggest miss in 2013 (88k vs. 190kexpected) took place during an unseasonably chilly March. But the weather cangive off false signals as well: H1 2012 was unusually warm but strong NFPgrowth early on gave way to a third straight summer slowdown. Moreover, theweather in February was not nearly as cold as January (February is alsotraditionally the coldest month of the year in the US on average).
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