The March Swiss was clearly fundamentally and technically overdone into the recent highs. With thesituation in the Ukraine calming down, some of the premium has already started to fall out of the Swiss. However,in order to send the March Swiss back down to the bottom of the late February consolidation might requireimprovement in the US economic condition. Therefore initial support in the Swiss might hold at 1.1301, but uptrend channel support isn’t seen until the 1.1256 level.
Technical Outlook: A bearish signal was triggered on a crossover down in the daily stochastics. Dailystochastics turning lower from overbought levels is bearish and will tend to reinforce a downside break especiallyif near term support is penetrated. The market’s close above the 9-day moving average suggests the short-termtrend remains positive. It is a slightly negative indicator that the close was lower than the pivot swing number. Thenext downside target is 112.67. The next area of resistance is around 113.60 and 114.11, while 1st support hitstoday at 112.88 and below there at 112.67.