AUD/USD continues to consolidate last week’s break and close below the 21-DMA ($0.8982) with bulls looking for a close above the Feb 28 high to confirm a break back above the 21-DMA and see focus shift back to retests of the key $0.9085 level. Bears continue to look for a close below the $0.8870 support to confirm the current bearish focus and see immediate focus shift lower to retests of the 2014 low. Daily studies have room to move before becoming O/S.
R 4: $0.9085 – Monthly high Jan 13
R 3: $0.9079 – 38.2% Fibonacci 0.9754-0.8662
R 2: $0.9048 – High Feb 24
R 1: $0.8991 – High Feb 28
LP: $0.8940
S 1: $0.8891 – 21 day lower Bollinger band
S 2: $0.8870 – Hourly support Feb 4 & 5, 50% Fibo
S 3: $0.8662 – 2014 Low Jan 24
S 4: $0.8634 – Low July19 2010
Key moving averages remain in the $0.8270-15 region with bears needing a close below the $0.8244 Feb 20 low to confirm a break and see overall focus return to retests of the $0.8052 Feb monthly low. The break below Friday’s low to start the new week eased the bullish pressure a little with a close Monday’s low needed to hint at a retest of the $0.8244-00 region and give the bears some comfort. Above $0.8428 is needed to kick start bullish momentum.
R 4: $0.8555 – High May 6
R 3: $0.8541 – Monthly high Oct 22
R 2: $0.8428 – 2014 high Jan 14
R 1: $0.8401 – High Mar 4
LP: $0.8385
S 1: $0.8340 – Low Mar 3
S 2: $0.8315 – 21-DMA
S 3: $0.8244 – Low Feb 20
S 4: $0.8182 – 61.8% Fibonacci 0.8052-0.8392
The close below the 21-DMA last week saw bears take control once more with overall focus having returned to retests of the 2014 low and immediate focus having shifted to a retest of the NZ$1.0570 Jan 29 low. Bulls will need to see the pair close back above NZ$1.0720 to ease the bearish pressure while a close above the $1.0858 resistance level is needed to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and see immediate focus shift to the key NZ$1.0905-45 region.
R 4: NZ$1.0858 – Hourly resistance Feb 20
R 3: NZ$1.0834 – High Feb 26
R 2: NZ$1.0802 – 21 day moving average
R 1: NZ$1.0720 – High Mar 4
LP: NZ$1.0659
S 1: NZ$1.0570 – Low Jan 29
S 2: NZ$1.0553 – Low Jan 27
S 3: NZ$1.0494 – 2014 low Jan 24
S 4: NZ$1.0398 – 21 week lower Bollinger band
The close below the 21-DMA last week saw bears take control once more with overall focus having returned to retests of the 2014 low and immediate focus having shifted to a retest of the NZ$1.0570 Jan 29 low. Bulls will need to see the pair close back above NZ$1.0720 to ease the bearish pressure while a close above the $1.0858 resistance level is needed to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and see immediate focus shift to the key NZ$1.0905-45 region.
R 4: NZ$1.0858 – Hourly resistance Feb 20
R 3: NZ$1.0834 – High Feb 26
R 2: NZ$1.0802 – 21 day moving average
R 1: NZ$1.0720 – High Mar 4
LP: NZ$1.0659
S 1: NZ$1.0570 – Low Jan 29
S 2: NZ$1.0553 – Low Jan 27
S 3: NZ$1.0494 – 2014 low Jan 24
S 4: NZ$1.0398 – 21 week lower Bollinger band
After dipping to start the new week the aussie-yen has bounced from the lower 21 day Bollinger band back towards the layers of resistance clustered in the Y91.73-92.03 region including the 21, 55 and 200-DMA’s and a previous daily high. A close above this level is needed to ease the bearish focus while the bulls will be looking for a close above the Y92.93 double daily top to end bearish aspirations and initially target the 2014 high
R 4: Y92.96 – High Feb 12 & 18
R 3: Y92.36 – High Feb 26
R 2: Y92.03 – 55-DMA
R 1: Y91.73 – 21-DMA
LP: Y91.30
S 1: Y90.34 – 21 day lower Bollinger band
S 2: Y89.85 – Low Feb 5
S 3: Y88.27 – 2014 low Feb 3
S 4: Y87.76 – Low Sept 2
EUR/AUD dipped to Tuesday, finding support at the 55-DMA as the relatively O/B slow stochastic continues to threaten a bearish cross. Bulls are looking for a close above A$1.5496 to reconfirm bullish focus whereas bears need to see a close below the rising daily channel base off the Nov monthly low coming in around A$1.5176 today to see a retest of the Feb monthly low at A$1.4987 initially targeted with the 100-DMA (A$1.5008) just above
R 4: A$1.5963 – 21 week upper Bollinger band
R 3: A$1.5840 – 2014 high Jan 24
R 2: A$1.5668 – High Jan 28
R 1: A$1.5496 – High Mar 3
LP: A$1.5359
S 1: A$1.5328 – 55-DMA
S 2: A$1.5231 – 21-DMA
S 3: A$1.5184 – Low Feb 24
S 4: A$1.5176 – Rising daily channel base
