After having again failed to take out the key $0.9085 resistance level earlier this week the AUD/USD headed lower with the pair dipping below both the 21-DMA ($0.8960) and 55-DMA ($0.8912). Bears will need to see a close below Thursday’s low to take control with the pair then targeting a retest of the 2014 low. Until a close below $0.8907 is seen bulls will retain some hope of a retest of the key $0.9079-85 region with the 100-DMA noted just above at $0.9111.
R 4: $0.9111 – 100-DMA
R 3: $0.9085 – Monthly high Jan 13
R 2: $0.9079 – 38.2% Fibonacci 0.9754-0.8662
R 1: $0.9048 – High Feb 24
LP: $0.8964
S 1: $0.8907 – Low Feb 27
S 2: $0.8870 – Hourly support Feb 4 & 5, 50% Fibo
S 3: $0.8788 – 21 day lower Bollinger band
S 4: $0.8662 – 2014 Low Jan 24
Key moving averages remain clustered in the $0.8265-79 region with bears needing a close below the $0.8244 Feb 20 low to confirm a break and see overall focus return to retests of the $0.8052 Feb monthly low so far. Bullish pressure is currently dominating with the immediate focus on a continuation higher that initially targets the 2014 high at $0.8428 and then the $0.8541 Oct 2013 monthly high above.
R 4: $0.8541 – Monthly high Oct 22
R 3: $0.8437 – 21 day upper Bollinger band
R 2: $0.8428 – 2014 high Jan 14
R 1: $0.8398 – High Jan 19
LP: $0.8382
S 1: $0.8295 – Low Feb 27
S 2: $0.8244 – Low Feb 20
S 3: $0.8182 – 61.8% Fibonacci 0.8052-0.8392
S 4: $0.8137 – 200-DMA
The close below the 21-DMA on Wednesday has seen bears firmly in control once more with overall focus having returned to retests of the 2014 low and immediate focus having shifted to a retest of the NZ$1.0570 Jan 29 low. Bulls will need to see the pair close back above the $1.0858 resistance level to regain control and see the immediate focus shift higher to the key NZ$1.0905-45 resistance region
R 4: NZ$1.0905 – Hourly resistance Feb 6
R 3: NZ$1.0858 – Hourly resistance Feb 20
R 2: NZ$1.0834 – High Feb 26
R 1: NZ$1.0822 – 21 day moving average
LP: NZ$1.0691
S 1: NZ$1.0672 – Low Feb 27
S 2: NZ$1.0570 – Low Jan 29
S 3: NZ$1.0494 – 2014 low Jan 24
S 4: NZ$1.0434 – 21 week lower Bollinger band
After having again ahead of the Feb 12 & 18 highs and the falling daily trend line off the Oct monthly high the pair managed a sharp dip below the 21-DMA before recovering some lost ground. Bulls need to see the pair close above the Feb 26 high to ease the current bearish focus that is targeting an overall retest of the Feb low while a close above the Y92.96 level is needed to see focus shift to the Y94.07-59 region
R 4: Y93.69 – 21 day upper Bollinger band
R 3: Y92.96 – High Feb 12 & 18, Falling daily trend line
R 2: Y92.36 – High Feb 26
R 1: Y91.84 – High Feb 27
LP: Y91.48
S 1: Y90.72 – Low Feb 27
S 2: Y90.63 – Hourly support Feb 6
S 3: Y90.41 – Low Feb 6
S 4: Y89.85 – Low Feb 5
EUR/AUD has bounced a little from initial support now noted at A$1.5184 from Feb 24 but needs to close above the A$1.5386 Feb 20 high also being last week’s high to kick start bullish momentum and see focus return to 2014 highs. The pair continues to look a little heavy with a close below the Feb 24 low confirming bearish focus and seeing the A$1.4974-87 region targeted with the 100-DMA noted at A$1.4974
R 4: A$1.5840 – 2014 high Jan 24
R 3: A$1.5668 – High Jan 28
R 2: A$1.5480 – High Feb 4
R 1: A$1.5386 – High Feb 20
LP: A$1.5295
S 1: A$1.5184 – Low Feb 24
S 2: A$1.5090 – Low Feb 18
S 3: A$1.4987 – Low Feb 12
S 4: A$1.4939 – 50.0% Fibonacci 1.4056-1.5832
