After having again failed to take out the key $0.9085 resistance level the AUD/USD has headed lower once more with the 21 and 55-DMA’s in the sights. We will look for a close below the $0.8910 Feb 10 low to confirm a break of both DMA’s, ending bullish aspirations and seeing the focus shift back to retests of the 2014 low. The $0.9085 resistance level remains key with a close above needed to see immediate focus ratchet higher to tests of the 200-DMA.
R 4: $0.9121 – 100-DMA
R 3: $0.9085 – Monthly high Jan 13
R 2: $0.9079 – 38.2% Fibonacci 0.9754-0.8662
R 1: $0.9048 – High Feb 24
LP: $0.8957
S 1: $0.8941 – 21-DMA
S 2: $0.8910 – Low Feb 10
S 3: $0.8870 – Hourly support Feb 4 & 5, 50% Fibo
S 4: $0.8750 – 21 day lower Bollinger band
After having remained capped ahead of the $0.8344 level so far this week the NZD/USD has dipped back towards the 21, 50 and 100-DMAs clustered in the 0.8262-0.8277 region with a close below the Feb 20 low needed to confirm a break lower, shifting immediate focus to the 61.8% Fibo and overall focus back to the $0.8052 level. Topside a close above the $0.8344 level is needed to kick start bullish momentum
R 4: $0.8541 – Monthly high Oct 22
R 3: $0.8428 – 2014 high Jan 14
R 2: $0.8398 – High Jan 19
R 1: $0.8344 – High Feb 19 & 26
LP: $0.8288
S 1: $0.8244 – Low Feb 20
S 2: $0.8182 – 61.8% Fibonacci 0.8052-0.8392
S 3: $0.8136 – 200-DMA
S 4: $0.8118 – 21 day lower Bollinger band
After remaining capped ahead of the NZ$1.0905 resistance level last week the AUD/NZD has headed lower, closing below the 21-DMA and seeing immediate focus shift to retest of the NZ$1.0720-30 region. A close below this region is needed to confirm bearish focus and see the pair headed for a retest of the 2014 low. Topside a close above yesterday’s high is needed to see the pair headed back towards the key NZ$1.0905-45 resistance region.
R 4: NZ$1.0945 – High Feb 4
R 3: NZ$1.0905 – Hourly resistance Feb 6
R 2: NZ$1.0858 – Hourly resistance Feb 20
R 1: NZ$1.0834 – High Feb 26
LP: NZ$1.0796
S 1: NZ$1.0788 – 55-DMA
S 2: NZ$1.0730 – Low Jan 31
S 3: NZ$1.0720 – 61.8% Fibonacci 1.0494-1.0945
S 4: NZ$1.0570 – Low Jan 29
After having again ahead of the Feb 12 & 18 highs and the falling daily trend line off the Oct monthly high the pair is dipping back towards the 21-DMA. A close above the falling daily trend line (Y92.96) remains needed to confirm a break higher and see immediate focus shift to the Y94.07 level. While the layers of resistance cap, further tests of the Y90.95 support remain favoured with the 21-DMA noted just above (Y91.43).
R 4: Y94.07 – 2014 high Jan 6
R 3: Y93.92 – 55-WMA
R 2: Y93.71 – 21 day upper Bollinger band
R 1: Y92.96 – High Feb 12 & 18, Falling daily trend line
LP: Y92.23
S 1: Y91.60 – Low Feb 24
S 2: Y91.43 – 21-DMA
S 3: Y90.95 – Low Feb 7 & 10
S 4: Y90.63 – Hourly support Feb 6
EUR/AUD has bounced a little from initial support now noted at A$1.5184 from Feb 24 but needs to close above the A$1.5386 Feb 20 high also being last week’s high to kick start bullish momentum and see focus return to 2014 highs. The pair continues to look a little heavy with a close below the Feb 24 low confirming bearish focus and seeing the A$1.4964-87 region targeted with the 100-DMA noted at A$1.4964.
R 4: A$1.5668 – High Jan 28
R 3: A$1.5555 – 21 day upper Bollinger band
R 2: A$1.5480 – High Feb 4
R 1: A$1.5386 – High Feb 20
LP: A$1.5283
S 1: A$1.5184 – Low Feb 24
S 2: A$1.5090 – Low Feb 18
S 3: A$1.4987 – Low Feb 12
S 4: A$1.4939 – 50.0% Fibonacci 1.4056-1.5832
