AUD/USD has bounced from just short of the 21 and 55-DMA’s to start the new week after dipping into the $0.8910-53 support region. The $0.9085 resistance level remains key resistance this week with a close above needed to see immediate focus ratchet higher to tests of the 200-DMA ($0.8199). Downside, a close below the Feb 10 low is needed to reconfirm bearish focus and see focus return to the 2013 low.
R 4: $0.9168 – High Dec 2
R 3: $0.9125 – 100-DMA
R 2: $0.9085 – Monthly high Jan 13
R 1: $0.9079 – 38.2% Fibonacci 0.9754-0.8662
LP: $0.9036
S 1: $0.8927 – 21-DMA
S 2: $0.8910 – Low Feb 10
S 3: $0.8870 – Hourly support Feb 4 & 5, 50% Fibo
S 4: $0.8821 – 61.8% Fibonacci 0.8662-0.9078
NZD/USD flirted with key moving averages clustered in the $0.8258-76 region to start the new week and we will continue to look for a close below the Feb 20 low to confirm a break which then hints at a deeper correction targeting the $0.8052 Feb monthly low so far. A close above the $0.8344 level is needed to ease the renewed bearish focus while a close above the $0.8398 Jan 19 high is needed to see overall focus shift higher.
R 4: $0.8541 – Monthly high Oct 22
R 3: $0.8428 – High Jan 14
R 2: $0.8398 – High Jan 19
R 1: $0.8344 – High Feb 19
LP: $0.8336
S 1: $0.8244 – Low Feb 20
S 2: $0.8182 – 61.8% Fibonacci 0.8052-0.8392
S 3: $0.8134 – 200-DMA
S 4: $0.8052 – Low Feb 4
AUD/JPY has bounced to start the new week and is working its way through layers of resistance noted in the Y92.46-92.98 region including the 100-DMA (Y92.72). A close above the falling daily trend line (Y92.98) remains needed to confirm a break higher and see immediate focus shift to the Y94.07 level. While the layers of resistance cap, further tests of the Y90.95 support remain favoured with the 21-DMA noted just above (Y91.24).
R 4: Y94.07 – 2014 high Jan 6
R 3: Y93.93 – 55-WMA
R 2: Y93.71 – 21 day upper Bollinger band
R 1: Y92.98 – High Feb 12 & 18, Falling daily trend line
LP: Y92.70
S 1: Y91.60 – Low Feb 24
S 2: Y91.24 – 21 day moving average
S 3: Y90.95 – Low Feb 7 & 10
S 4: Y90.63 – Hourly support Feb 6
After remaining capped ahead of the NZ$1.0905 resistance level the AUD/NZD has dipped back towards the 55 and 21-DMA’s as previously overbought daily tech studies return to more neutral levels. While the NZ$1.0905 level caps further dips toward key moving averages remain favoured with a close below the NZ$1.0720 level needed to confirm a break lower and see focus return to the NZ$1.0494-1.0570 region. The NZ$1.0905-45 region remains key resistance
R 4: NZ$1.0956 – 21 day upper Bollinger band
R 3: NZ$1.0945 – High Feb 4
R 2: NZ$1.0905 – Hourly resistance Feb 6
R 1: NZ$1.0858 – Hourly resistance Feb 20
LP: NZ$1.0846
S 1: NZ$1.0802 – 21-DMA
S 2: NZ$1.0730 – Low Jan 31
S 3: NZ$1.0720 – 61.8% Fibonacci 1.0494-1.0945
S 4: NZ$1.0672 – Previous daily resistance now support
Following spikes above both the 21 and 55-DMA’s to end last week the EUR/AUD has dipped to take out the previous initial support at A$1.5205 which relieves the previous bullish focus and sees the pair hinting at a continuation lower that initially targets the A$1.5090 Feb 18 low. Topside the pair now needs to close above the Feb 20 high to kick start bullish momentum and see focus shift back to the A$1.5668-1.5840 region
R 4: A$1.5668 – High Jan 28
R 3: A$1.5616 – 21 day upper Bollinger band
R 2: A$1.5480 – High Feb 4
R 1: A$1.5386 – High Feb 20
LP: A$1.5189
S 1: A$1.5090 – Low Feb 18
S 2: A$1.4987 – Low Feb 12
S 3: A$1.4939 – 50.0% Fibonacci 1.4056-1.5832
S 4: A$1.4802 – Monthly low Dec 2
