Last week’s repeated attempts to head higher remained capped ahead of the 38.2% Fibo and Jan monthly high with the pair ending the week marginally above the rising daily channel base ($0.8953). Key moving averages are noted in the $0.8910-20 region with a close below the $0.8910 level needed to confirm a renewed bearish focus and see immediate focus shift to the $0.8820-30 region. A break lower remains favoured while the $0.9085 level caps.
R 4: $0.9085 – Monthly high Jan 13
R 3: $0.9079 – 38.2% Fibonacci 0.9754-0.8662
R 2: $0.9046 – Hourly resistance Feb 19
R 1: $0.9022 – High Feb 20
Latest price: $0.8970
S 1: $0.8920 – 55-DMA
S 2: $0.8910 – Low Feb 10, 21-DMA
S 3: $0.8870 – Hourly support Feb 4 & 5, 50% Fibo
S 4: $0.8821 – 61.8% Fibonacci 0.8662-0.9078
After remaining capped ahead of the NZ$1.0905 resistance level the AUD/NZD has dipped back towards the 55 and 21-DMA’s as previously overbought daily tech studies return to more neutral levels. While the NZ$1.0905 level caps further dips toward key moving averages remain favoured with a close below the NZ$1.0720 level needed to confirm a break lower and see focus return to the NZ$1.0494-1.0570 region. The NZ$1.0905-45 region remains key resistance
R 4: NZ$1.0970 – 21 day upper Bollinger band
R 3: NZ$1.0945 – High Feb 4
R 2: NZ$1.0905 – Hourly resistance Feb 6
R 1: NZ$1.0858 – Hourly resistance Feb 20
Latest price: NZ$1.0816
S 1: NZ$1.0788 – 21-DMA
S 2: NZ$1.0730 – Low Jan 31
S 3: NZ$1.0720 – 61.8% Fibonacci 1.0494-1.0945
S 4: NZ$1.0672 – Previous daily resistance now support
NZD/USD flirted with key moving averages clustered in the $0.8258-76 region to end last week and we will continue to look for a close below the Feb 20 low to confirm a break which then hints at a deeper correction targeting the $0.8052 Feb monthly low so far. A close above the $0.8344 level is needed to ease the renewed bearish focus while a close above the $0.8398 Jan 19 high is needed to see overall focus shift higher
R 4: $0.8541 – Monthly high Oct 22
R 3: $0.8428 – High Jan 14
R 2: $0.8398 – High Jan 19
R 1: $0.8344 – High Feb 19
Latest price: $0.8270
S 1: $0.8244 – Low Feb 20
S 2: $0.8182 – 61.8% Fibonacci 0.8052-0.8392
S 3: $0.8133 – 200-DMA
S 4: $0.8052 – Low Feb 4
Layers of resistance are noted in the Y92.46-93.06 region including the 100-DMA (Y92.70). A close above the falling daily trend line (Y93.06) remains needed to confirm a break higher and see immediate focus shift to the Y94.07 level. While the layers of resistance cap further tests of the Y90.95 support remain favoured with the 21-DMA noted just above (Y91.06). Daily Slow Stochastic and RSI indicators continue to hint at further downside
R 4: Y94.07 – 2014 high Jan 6
R 3: Y93.06 – Falling daily trend line
R 2: Y92.98 – High Feb 12 & 18
R 1: Y92.46 – High Feb 19
Latest price: Y91.90
S 1: Y90.95 – Low Feb 7 & 10
S 2: Y90.63 – Hourly support Feb 6
S 3: Y90.41 – Low Feb 6
S 4: Y89.85 – Low Feb 5
ERU/AUD continued to find support ahead of the A$1.5205 level in the latter half of last week with a close below this level needed to end bullish aspirations and see immediate focus shift lower to the A$1.4939-87 region. While A$1.5205 supports the A$1.5480 level remains the immediate focus with potential for a retest of the 2014 high. A close above the A$1.5386 Feb 20 high is needed to confirm the bullish focus.
R 4: A$1.5692 – 21 day upper Bollinger band
R 3: A$1.5668 – High Jan 28
R 2: A$1.5480 – High Feb 4
R 1: A$1.5386 – High Feb 20
LP: A$1.5321
S 1: A$1.5205 – Low Feb 19
S 2: A$1.4987 – Low Feb 12
S 3: A$1.4939 – 50.0% Fibonacci 1.4056-1.5832, 100-DMA
S 4: A$1.4802 – Monthly low Dec 2
