While the March Dollar saw a fresh downside breakout overnight, the market was able to reject thatslide and regain the 80.00 pivot level on the charts. However, the prospect of more weak data ahead should leavethe bear camp with an edge, especially with the market anticipating significant weakness in US housing starts andpermits data later this morning. There will also be a PPI release that might provide a surprise, especially if thatreading shows a negative result, as that will be seen as a sign of even more noted economic weakness off theadverse weather pattern. Countervailing the downward bias from the US economic report flow today will be aseries of Fed speeches and an afternoon release of the FOMC meeting minutes. The fundamental direction of theDollar looks to be down in the morning, but the 80.00 level seems to be offering some measure of support,perhaps because the trade fears some support from Fed sources later today. In short, the bears will probablypush the March Dollar index below the 80.00 level, perhaps down to 79.85, before the Greenback bounces backin the afternoon trade.
Technical Outlook: Daily stochastics declining into oversold territory suggest the selling may bedrying up soon. A negative signal for trend short-term was given on a close under the 9-bar moving average. It isa slightly negative indicator that the close was under the swing pivot. The next downside objective is 79.83. Somecaution in pressing the downside is warranted with the RSI under 30. The next area of resistance is around 80.20and 80.37, while 1st support hits today at 79.93 and below there at 79.83.