Main event in Sweden will be the January inflation figures. The January numbersare always scary stuff since Statistics Sweden performs a reweighting of thecomponents, which is hard to get your head around. All in all, we have the followingforecasts: CPI -1.0% m/m/0.0% y/y, CPIF -0.9% m/m/0.6% y/y. This is one-tenthbelow the Riksbank’s forecasts.
On Friday the NIER will also publish the Swedish Business and ConsumerConfidence surveys, which we expect to have held rather still since January. Despitedemonstrating poor forecasting performance since the onset of the financial crisis, itstill gives a profound insight into which industries are faring well – or not so well.
This week we will also see the release of new borrowing forecast from The SwedishDebt Office. In October, the Debt Office expected net borrowing of SEK61bn andSEK18bn in 2014 and 2015, respectively.
There are no events in Norway to follow this week. Last week we got both higherinflation and better growth data from Norway, supporting our view that Norges Bankwill not cut rates in 2014 and that the NOK will perform in 2014 after the strongunderperformance in 2013.
In Denmark, it will be worth keeping an eye on February consumer confidence data,news from the labour market in the form of LFS unemployment data for Q4 andretail sales figures for January. The Danish Debt management Office will also tap in2.5% 2016 government bond and the 10Y linker. The auctions will take place on 18February.
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Danske Bank