While the Dollar was waffling around both sides of unchanged this morning, the Greenback might bevulnerable to its upcoming data flows. Expectations of a slightly weaker private jobs report later this morningcompared to December might not rekindle safe haven sentiment, as the ADP figure is still expected to berelatively high around +170,000 to +190,000. Limiting the potential pressure in the wake of the early private jobsreport are expectations for service sector ISM readings later in the morning trade. There will also be FederalReserve member testimony to a House committee but that testimony isn’t expected to focus on future Fed policydecisions. The Dollar might see some initials support from the revelation of a softer than expected Euro zoneretail sales result overnight and it might also see some support from a minor miss on Euro zone January ServicesIndex. In the end, we think the Dollar is set to be pressured and that a recent pattern of lower highs from thecharts is likely to extend. Near term downside targeting in the March Dollar Index is seen at 81.09 and a declinebelow that key support level probably requires something definitively negative from the US economic report front.
Technical Outlook: Momentum studies are rising from mid-range, which could accelerate a movehigher if resistance levels are penetrated. The market’s close above the 9-day moving average suggests theshort-term trend remains positive. The daily closing price reversal up is a positive indicator that could supporthigher prices. The close over the pivot swing is a somewhat positive setup. The near-term upside objective is at81.46. The next area of resistance is around 81.35 and 81.46, while 1st support hits today at 81.10 and belowthere at 80.97.