Since the rally from 102.86, prices have been forming a bull triangle above our key 103.89 support level. Further back and forth is needed to satisfy the consolidation ahead of an expected rally to near ~105.50. We still view this unfolding (a)-(b)-(c) rally as just part of a larger sideways correction that will eventually lead to a wave-(5) rally to new highs. Once this wave-B up is complete, we’ll look for another sharp move lower (wave-C) ahead of the final rally. The final down move within the correction is expected to bottom in the 101.50/103 zone. Conviction: Medium Trade: Flat. Correction unfolding, look to add in due time at the expected wave-C low. Levels: Support – 104, 103.90, 102.86 Resistance – 104.92, 105.14, 105.34
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Nomura