Our core view sees the NZD/USD well supported through the first half of the year. Broadly, we see the current 0.8100-0.8400 trading range sustaining over this period. It is not until later in the year that we anticipate the NZD/USD to decline, contingent on (i) an expected peaking in the NZ terms of trade (ii) US positive growth momentum sustaining, to begin to narrow the differential with NZ. Our end-year NZD/USD target remains at 0.7700
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BNZ