e the Dollar is minimally higher to start today, it is starting off the trade below the prior twosession’s highs. The Dollar should be garnering some lift from anticipation of a strong US payroll report, slackChinese export results and from a positive initial start in US equity markets. At least into the non farm payrollreport the trade will remain bullish toward the Dollar but the bull camp might need to see a payroll gain of at least+200,000 to hold above the recent consolidation lows of 81.00. In order for the Dollar to rise to a new high for themove and in turn reach the highest level since November 21st, probably requires a non farm payroll gain inexcess of +210,000 and that report must be presented without a noted increase in the unemployment rate. Inother words, what the non farm payroll headline gives to the dollar bulls, the unemployment reading might takeaway or countervail. It is possible that the ADP figures have set the bar a little too high for the Dollar, especiallywith the Dollar this morning sitting roughly 160 points above the December lows.
Technical Outlook: Daily stochastics have risen into overbought territory which will tend to supportreversal action if it occurs. The market’s short-term trend is positive on the close above the 9-day movingaverage. It is a slightly negative indicator that the close was under the swing pivot. The near-term upside target isat 81.46. The next area of resistance is around 81.24 and 81.46, while 1st support hits today at 80.91 and belowthere at 80.78.