Dollar’s risk status still unclear
Our economists have chosen not to take the ADP figure as signal for stronger payrolls, but there will be plenty within markets looking for a print above 200k today and expecting a commensurate dollar response. Yet, without taking a view on payrolls, we believe that FX markets are not entering 2014 any wiser as to just how the dollar’s relationship to risk will evolve, especially in performance vs. G10. Even the FOMC’s assessment –shown in the December minutes, for a ‘higher path for the foreign exchange value of the dollar’ – looks premature.
Read the full report: UBS