The high in the Dollar on Thursday was made before US data was released and therefore generally inlineeconomic results created little upside follow-through in the Greenback. With no major US data to be releasedtoday, the trade will have to take its direction from Fed speeches and from monthly US auto sales results. SinceBernanke will speak late in trading day (after European close) traders might expect an increase in volatility intomid session. With somewhat slack data flow from China, mixed to slightly weaker international equity marketaction and positive charts in the March Dollar Index, the bull camp has to feel like they have an edge today. Neartermresistance is seen up around the 80.86 level but the bull camp may need consistently “good” US data flow tosustain the recent up move. However, some players might suggest that the Dollar has been resurrected from themid December low, off the idea of additional US tapering moves early in 2014 and therefore one should notdiscount the dialogue from Fed speeches today. In short, the onus is on the bull camp to prove it can sustain therecently revived upward tilt.
Technical Outlook: The major trend could be turning up with the close back above the 60-daymoving average. The daily stochastics gave a bullish indicator with a crossover up. Stochastics are at mid-rangebut trending higher, which should reinforce a move higher if resistance levels are taken out. The intermediatetrend could be turning up with the close back above the 18-day moving average. Follow through buying lookslikely if the market can hold yesterday’s gap on the day session chart. There could be more upside follow throughsince the market closed above the 2nd swing resistance. The next upside objective is 81.11. The next area ofresistance is around 80.92 and 81.11, while 1st support hits today at 80.49 and below there at 80.25.