USD/JPY Analysis

Japanese markets were closed today to mark the Emperor’s birthday,and that left little else for the rest of the region to trade off, keeping theyen holding tight ranges through the entire morning. Dollar-yen opened atY104.01 and edged higher in early dealings while euro-yen started at Y142.25 andfollowed dollar-yen up. Dollar-yen peaked at an early Y104.08 high but there waslittle follow-through to push the pair up toward the new 5-year high of Y104.64traded on Friday in the US. The cross meanwhile got up to Y142.49 earlier butfailed to hold on to those gains. Dollar-yen was last at Y104.05 while euro-yenslipped back to Y142.29 but still off the morning low of Y142.11 and not verymuch changed from Y142.32 late Friday in the US. For dollar-yen, stops are notedbelow Y103.70 with a break lower hinting at a continuation lower that tests thekey Y102.50 level. A close below Y102.50 is needed to confirm a break of the21-day moving average at Y102.85 and see immediate focus shift to a test of the101.62 level.