While finding its footing during an overnight session dominated by overseas data, the Dollar has madelittle headway with recovering from Tuesday’s sharp reversal early in this morning’s trading. A failure to breach the81.00 level also thwarted a potential breakout above its longer-term downtrend, so the Dollar looks to have itswork cut out for it during today’s session. One key difference is that there will be fresh “top-tier” US data for themarket to digest, so there is a good chance that the Dollar could find a fresh boost by mid-morning. However, thecase for December Fed tapering remains tenuous at best and will have very little tolerance for any negative USnumbers going into Friday’s Payroll reading. The Dollar may be able to climb up towards the 80.87 level with”good” US data and a positive reception for the Fed’s Beige Book later today, but will likely need additional helpfrom overseas risk concerns in order to make any strong upside move in front of Friday’s critical US jobs data.
Technical Outlook: Momentum studies are declining, but have fallen to oversold levels. Theintermediate trend has turned down with the cross over back below the 18-day moving average. The daily closingprice reversal down puts the market on the defensive. The swing indicator gave a moderately negative readingwith the close below the 1st support number. The next downside objective is 80.19. The next area of resistance isaround 80.86 and 81.19, while 1st support hits today at 80.37 and below there at 80.19.