AUD/USD continued its move lower yesterday, oscillating around the lower 21 day Bollinger band ($0.9093) as overall focus remains firmly on retests of the 2013 low. A close above yesterday’s high is now needed to relieve the immediate bearish focus and see O/S daily tech studies come into play. Overall above the100-DMA remains needed to see focus return to a retest of the $0.9393-0.9447 region where 21 and 55-DMA’s and last week’s highs are located.
R 4: $0.9279 – 100 day moving average
R 3: $0.9255 – Hourly resistance Nov 22
R 2: $0.9205 – High Nov 26
R 1: $0.9136 – High Nov 27
Latest price: $0.9080
S 1: $0.8975 – Low Sept 3
S 2: $0.8894 – Low Aug 30
S 3: $0.8850 – 2013 Low Aug 5
S 4: $0.8771 – Monthly Low Aug 25 2010
NZD/USD has final managed a close below the 200-DMA but has bounced back above the 100-DMA and Ichimoku cloud base after marginally trading at the lowest level since mid-Sept. A close back above Wednesday’s high is now needed to relieve the immediate bearish focus while a close above the 21-DMA is needed to see overall focus return to retests of the $0.8414 level. Despite O/S studies immediate focus is on a test of Sept 9 lows.
R 4: $0.8389 – 21 day upper Bollinger band
R 3: $0.8305 – Hourly resistance Nov 20
R 2: $0.8271 – 21 day moving average
R 1: $0.8209 – High Nov 27
Latest price: $0.8148
S 1: $0.8120 – Low Nov 27
S 2: $0.8084 – Low Sept 12
S 3: $0.8036 – 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 0.7724-0.8541
S 4: $0.7963 – Low Sept 9
Fresh 2013 lows for the AUD/NZD continue with the immediate focus on the Oct 24 2008 low. The 21 day lower Bollinger band comes in at NZ$1.1106 with oscillation around the lower Bollinger expected to continue until a close above the NZ$1.1211 level is seen. A close above the NZ$1.1211 Nov 25 high is needed to relieve the immediate bearish pressure while a close above the 21-DMA is needed to see focus return to the NZ$1.1490-1.1585 region.
R 4: NZ$1.1388 – Previous daily support now resistance
R 3: NZ$1.1307 – 21 day moving average
R 2: NZ$1.1270 – High Nov 22
R 1: NZ$1.1211 – High Nov 25
Latest price: NZ$1.1135
S 1: NZ$1.1117 – 2013 Low Nov 26
S 2: NZ$1.0936 – Low Oct 24 2008
S 3: NZ$1.0893 – Low Oct 16 2008
S 4: NZ$1.0654 – 2013 Low Oct 10 2008
AUD/JPY continues to pause ahead of the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the Y86.43-95.67 move. A close above the Nov 21 high remains needed to relieve the bearish focus while above the Y94.59 Nov 20 high is needed to confirm a break of the 200-DMA and see overall focus shift focus higher. While the Y93.73 level caps the immediate focus is on a move lower that targets the Y90.11-67 region.
R 4: Y94.45 – 200 day moving average
R 3: Y94.08 – Hourly resistance Nov 20
R 2: Y93.73 – High Nov 21
R 1: Y93.28 – 21 day moving average
Latest price: Y92.73
S 1: Y92.14 – 38.2% Fibonacci retracement Y86.43-95.67
S 2: Y91.59 – 100 day moving average
S 3: Y91.05 – 50.0% Fibonacci retracement Y86.43-95.67
S 4: Y90.73 – Ichimoku cloud base
After having found support around the A$1.4320 level last week EUR/AUD headed sharply higher, taking out the A$1.4558 level that had previously capped. Immediate focus remains on a retest of the 2013 high with a break above seeing levels targeted that have not been seen since mid-2010. A close below Wednesday’s low is now needed to relieve the immediate bullish focus while below A$1.4713 is needed to see focus shift lower once more.
R 4: A$1.5955 – Monthly High Feb 4 2010
R 3: A$1.5456 – Monthly High May 21 2010
R 2: A$1.5253 – High May 24 2010
R 1: A$1.5028 – 2013 High Aug 28
Latest price: A$1.4946
S 1: A$1.4863 – Low Nov 27
S 2: A$1.4713 – Low Nov 26
S 3: A$1.4573 – Low Nov 22
S 4: A$1.4392 – Low Nov 21
USD/KRW has broken and closed back above the 21-DMA and falling daily channel top but we will continue to look for a close above the Nov 14 high as confirmation of a break above the 55-DMA and a shift higher in overall focus back to the Krw1081.5 level. The move higher has seen the immediate bearish pressure relieved as daily tech studies correct from oversold levels which may continue to support the pair on dips.
R 4: Krw1088.5 – 100 day moving average
R 3: Krw1081.1 – Previous daily support now resistance
R 2: Krw1070.2 – High Nov 14
R 1: Krw1068.9 – 21 day moving average
Latest price: Krw1064.6
S 1: Krw1059.0 – Low Nov 26
S 2: Krw1054.3 – 2013 low Nov 19
S 3: Krw1048.3 – 2011 low Aug 1
S 4: Krw1027.8 – Falling daily channel base
USD/SGD has managed a close above the 200-DMA and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, but has so far failed to take out the layers of resistance noted in the Sgd1.2578-1.2615 region with the 100-DMA noted at Sgd1.2578. Focus currently remains on the layers of resistance above with a close below the Sgd1.2477 level needed to ease the bullish pressure and see the immediate focus return to a test of the Sgd1.2406 Nov 5 low.
R 4: Sgd1.2615 – Ichimoku cloud top
R 3: Sgd1.2610 – High Sept 18
R 2: Sgd1.2601 – 50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.2860-1.2342
R 1: Sgd1.2581 – High Sept 30
Latest price: Sgd1.2529
S 1: Sgd1.2477 – Hourly support Nov 21
S 2: Sgd1.2465 – 21 day moving average
S 3: Sgd1.2406 – Low Nov 5
S 4: Sgd1.2330 – Low May 10
