The range that started in mid-July proved to be a consolidation within an ongoing downtrend. The recent break of critical 1.12 support has come with no sign of momentum divergence and suggests (as does the wave count) that the downtrend is slated to continue. This leg lower fits as wave-5 in a decline that began back in 2011. Even modest targets based off the recent range project a move to 1.07. S/t, look for any rally to meet resistance at the old support level of 1.12. On the downside, wave-iii=i at 1.0920. A rally back above 1.12 and then the wave-ii pivot high at 1.1313 is needed to negate the bearish breakdown.
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Nomura