AUD/USD has continued its move lower after failing at the 21-DMA last Wednesday, and extending losses below the 100-DMA on Friday. Immediate focus remains on a retest of the Sept 5 low with overall focus firmly on a retest of 2013 lows from early Aug. A close above the 100-DMA is needed to relieve the immediate bearish focus and see focus return to a retest of the $0.9413-47 region where 21 and 55-DMA’s and last week’s highs are located.
R 4: $0.9310 – Hourly resistance Nov 21
R 3: $0.9280 – 100 day moving average
R 2: $0.9255 – Hourly resistance Nov 22
R 1: $0.9207 – Hourly resistance Nov 22
Latest price: $0.9162
S 1: $0.9117 – Low Sept 5
S 2: $0.8975 – Low Sept 3
S 3: $0.8894 – Low Aug 30
S 4: $0.8850 – 2013 Low Aug 5
NZD/USD dipped below the 200-DMA for the first time since mid-Sept before bouncing off the 100-DMA to close above. Initial resistance is now noted at Friday’s high with a close above needed to relieve the immediate bearish focus. We will look for a close above the 55-DMA to end bearish aspirations and see initial focus return to retests of the $0.8414 level. A close below the Sept 12 low is needed to confirm a break of the 100-DMA.
R 4: $0.8414 – High Nov 6
R 3: $0.8305 – Hourly resistance Nov 20
R 2: $0.8297 – 55 day moving average
R 1: $0.8243 – High Nov 22
Latest price: $0.8177
S 1: $0.8125 – 100 day moving average
S 2: $0.8084 – Low Sept 12
S 3: $0.8036 – 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 0.7724-0.8541
S 4: $0.7963 – Low Sept 9
Fresh 2013 lows for the AUD/NZD on Friday followed up with a bearish NY close ensure the focus remains on lower levels to start the new week. The falling 21 day lower Bollinger band comes in around NZ$1.1151 with tests of the lower Bollinger band targeted while the Nov 22 high caps. A close above this level is needed to relieve the immediate bearish focus while a close above the NZ$1.1388 level is needed to shift focus higher.
R 4: NZ$1.1423 – 100 day moving average
R 3: NZ$1.1388 – Previous daily support now resistance
R 2: NZ$1.1314 – High Nov 20
R 1: NZ$1.1270 – High Nov 22
Latest price: NZ$1.1200
S 1: NZ$1.1169 – 2013 Low Nov 22
S 2: NZ$1.1151 – 21 day lower Bollinger band
S 3: NZ$1.0936 – Low Oct 24 2008
S 4: NZ$1.0893 – Low Oct 16 2008
AUD/JPY: The 200-DMA has thwarted attempts to continue higher last week and managing to close below the 55-DMA for the first time since early Sept. A close below the Nov 13 low is needed to reconfirm the current bearish focus and see the pair targeting a retest of the Y90.11-67 support region. A close above the Nov 21 high is needed to relieve the bearish focus while above the 200-DMA is needed to shift focus higher.
RES 4: Y94.51 – 200 day moving average
RES 3: Y94.08 – Hourly resistance Nov 20
RES 2: Y93.73 – High Nov 21
RES 1: Y93.05 – Hourly resistance Nov 22
PRICE: Y92.83
SUP 1: Y92.34 – Low Nov 13
SUP 2: Y92.14 – 38.2% Fibonacci retracement Y86.43-95.67
SUP 3: Y91.56 – 100 day moving average
SUP 4: Y91.05 – 50.0% Fibonacci retracement Y86.43-95.67
After having found support around the A$1.4320 level last week EUR/AUD headed sharply higher, taking out the A$1.4558 level that had previously capped and traded at the highest level since early Sept. Immediate focus has shifted to a retest of the 2013 high with a break above seeing levels targeted that have not been seen since mid-2010. A close below Friday’s low is needed to relieve the immediate bullish focus.
R 4: A$1.5456 – Monthly High May 21 2010
R 3: A$1.5253 – High May 24 2010
R 2: A$1.5028 – 2013 High Aug 28
R 1: A$1.4806 – High Nov 22
Latest price: A$1.4781
S 1: A$1.4573 – Low Nov 22
S 2: A$1.4392 – Low Nov 21
S 3: A$1.4320 – Low Nov 19
S 4: A$1.4230 – Low Nov 11
After trading at marginal fresh 2013 lows USD/KRW bounced to close above the previous initial resistance noted at Krw1059.3 relieving the previous bearish pressure although the failure at the 21-DMA on Thursday and Friday is hinting at further spikes lower while it caps. Overall a close back above the Nov 14 high is now needed to confirm a break of the falling daily channel top and see focus return to the Krw1081.1-1091.1 resistance region
R 4: Krw1090.9 – 100 day moving average
R 3: Krw1081.1 – Previous daily support now resistance
R 2: Krw1070.2 – High Nov 14
R 1: Krw1064.2 – 21 day moving average
Latest price: Krw1061.6
S 1: Krw1055.1 – 21 day lower Bollinger band
SP 2: Krw1054.3 – 2013 low Nov 19
S 3: Krw1048.3 – 2011 low Aug 1
S 4: Krw1030.5 – Falling daily channel base
USD/SGD dipped to test the upper limit of the Sgd1.2406-28 support region last week before bouncing sharply from this level on Wednesday and continuing higher on Thursday. The close above the Sgd1.2495 level and 55-DMA has seen immediate focus shift higher to a retest of the 200-DMA with a close above then seeing the Sgd1.2649 level targeted. A close below hourly support is needed to relieve the renewed bullish pressure.
R 4: Sgd1.2610 – High Sept 18
R 3: Sgd1.2584 – 100 day moving average
R 2: Sgd1.2540 – 38.2% Fibonacci of 1.2860-1.2342
R 1: Sgd1.2535 – 200 day moving average
Latest price: Sgd1.2489
S 1: Sgd1.2477 – Hourly support Nov 21
S 2: Sgd1.2439 – 21 day moving average
S 3: Sgd1.2406 – Low Nov 5
S 4: Sgd1.2330 – Low May 10
