AUD/USD took out initial resistance yesterday, marginally trading above the 55-DMA as daily tech studies slowly correct from oversold before the pair ran out of steam ahead of the $0.9424 resistance level. The $0.9424 level remains key resistance with a close above needed to see immediate focus shift to a test of the 21-DMA while overall focus will shift to tests of the 200-DMA. The pair has not closed above the 200-DMA since mid-April.
R 4: $0.9541 – High Nov 16
R 3: $0.9481 – 21 day moving average
R 2: $0.9475 – High Nov 8
R 1: $0.9424 – Previous daily support now resistance
Latest price: $0.9375
S 1: $0.9360 – Low Nov 18
S 2: $0.9272 – 100 day moving average
S 3: $0.9221 – Low Sept 10
S 4: $0.9195 – 61.8% Fibonacci of $0.8850-0.9754
A bullish close for the NZD/USD to end last week with the pair closing above the 21-DMA with immediate focus now on a test of the Nov 6 high and overall focus turning to potential tests of the Oct monthly high. A close below Friday’s low remains needed to relieve the current bullish focus and see attention shift back to a retest of the key $0.8159-76 support region with a close below needed to see focus shift lower to tests of the 2013 low.
R 4: $0.8541 – Monthly high Oct 22
R 3: $0.8461 – 21 day upper Bollinger band
R 2: $0.8445 – High Oct 24
R 1: $0.8414 – High Nov 6
Latest price: $0.8333
S 1: $0.8300 – Hourly breakout level
S 2: $0.8268 – Low Nov 15
S 3: $0.8233 – Low Nov 14
S 4: $0.8176 – 200 day moving average
Fresh 6 week lows for the AUD/NZD to start the new week keep the focus firmly on a retest of the 2013 lows. A close above Thursday’s high remains needed to relieve the immediate bearish focus while a close above the 21-DMA is now needed to shift overall focus higher. The falling 21 day lower Bollinger band comes in around NZ$1.1206 with oscillation around the lower Bollinger band expected to continue while NZ$1.1305 caps.
R 4: NZ$1.1442 – 100 day moving average
R 3: NZ$1.1397 – 21 day moving average
R 2: NZ$1.1388 – Previous daily support now resistance
R 1: NZ$1.1305 – High Nov 14
Latest price: NZ$1.1243
S 1: NZ$1.1192 – 2013 Low July 31
S 2: NZ$1.0936 – Low Oct 24 2008
S 3: NZ$1.0893 – Low Oct 16 2008
S 4: NZ$1.0654 – 2008 Low Oct 9 2008
AUD/JPY extended higher to start the new week before retreating from ahead of initial resistance with the 200-DMA just above. The bearish move ahead of the NY close is of some concern for the bulls but a close below initial support remains needed to ease the overall bullish focus that continues to target tests of the Y94.34-56 region with the 200-DMA noted at Y94.56. Daily Slow Stochastic and RSI studies are correcting higher
R 4: Y95.67 – Monthly high Oct 22
R 3: Y94.78 – 21 day upper Bollinger band
R 2: Y94.56 – 200 day moving average
R 1: Y94.34 – High Oct 24
Latest price: Y93.70
S 1: Y93.29 – Previous daily resistance now support
S 2: Y92.33 – Low Nov 13
S 3: Y92.14 – 38.2% Fibonacci retracement Y86.43-95.67
S 4: Y91.49 – 100 day moving average
After repeated failures around the A$1.4477 last week EUR/AUD has continued its retreat to start the new week before bouncing from the 21-DMA to remain little changed from Monday’s opening level. A close above the Nov 14 high is now needed to kick start bullish momentum while a close below the 21-DMA is now needed to hint at a continuation lower and see the pair target retests of the A$1.4056.
R 4: A$1.4558 – High Sept 4 & 27
R 3: A$1.4529 – High Oct 29
R 2: A$1.4477 – High Nov 14
R 1: A$1.4422 – 100 day moving average
Latest price: A$1.4399
S 1: A$1.4327 – 21 day moving average
S 2: A$1.4230 – Low Nov 11
S 3: A$1.4114 – 21 day lower Bollinger band
S 4: A$1.4056 – Low Nov 7
After numerous failures at the falling daily channel top and 55-DMA, USD/KRW has slipped lower once again with daily tech studies correcting from overbought levels. Immediate focus is now on a test of the 2013 low. Overall the 55-DMA and falling daily channel top remain key and while they cap potential exists for a break to fresh 2013 lows and then the 2011 lows beneath with the falling daily channel base noted below
R 4: Krw1081.1 – Previous daily support now resistance
R 3: Krw1072.7 – 55 day moving average
R 2: Krw1070.2 – High Nov 14
R 1: Krw1064.4 – 21 day moving average
Latest price: Krw1058.1
S 1: Krw1055.5 – 21 day lower Bollinger band
S 2: Krw1054.5 – 2013 low Jan 11
S 3: Krw1048.3 – 2011 low Aug 1
S 4: Krw1034.1 – Falling daily channel base
USD/SGD: Initial resistance remains at Friday’s high with immediate focus remaining on a test of the Sgd1.2406-27 region and the 21-DMA noted at Sgd1.2427. A close above Friday’s high is needed to relieve the bearish focus and see the 200-DMA targeted once more. Below Sgd1.2406 is needed to see the May monthly low targeted. Overbought daily tech studies are slowly correcting lower adding weight to the renewed bearish case.
R 4: Sgd1.2581 – High Sept 30
R 3: Sgd1.2540 – 38.2% Fibonacci of 1.2860-1.2342
R 2: Sgd1.2533 – 200 day moving average
R 1: Sgd1.2495 – High Nov 15
Latest price: Sgd1.2460
S 1: Sgd1.2427 – 21 day moving average
S 2: Sgd1.2406 – Low Nov 5
S 3: Sgd1.2330 – Low May 10
S 4: Sgd1.2268 – Monthly low May 9
