AUD/USD bounced repeatedly from ahead of the 100-DMA last week while remaining capped on bounces ahead of the Nov 11 high. Daily tech studies remain oversold and are threatening to correct but a close back above the $0.9424 level remains key resistance with a close above needed to see immediate focus shift to a test of the 21-DMA while overall focus will shift to tests of the 200-DMA. The pair has not closed above the 200-DMA since mid April.
R 4: $0.9496 – 21 day moving average
R 3: $0.9475 – High Nov 8
R 2: $0.9424 – Previous daily support now resistance
R 1: $0.9393 – High Nov 11
Latest price: $0.9376
S 1: $0.9271 – 100 day moving average
S 2: $0.9221 – Low Sept 10
S 3: $0.9195 – 61.8% Fibonacci of $0.8850-0.9754
S 4: $0.9117 – Low Sept 5
A bullish close for the NZD/USD to end last week with the pair closing above the 21-DMA with immediate focus now on a test of the Nov 6 high and overall focus turning to potential tests of the Oct monthly high. A close below Friday’s low is needed to relieve the current bullish focus and see attention shift back to a retest of the key $0.8159-76 support region with a close below needed to see focus shift lower to tests of the 2013 low.
R 4: $0.8541 – Monthly high Oct 22
R 3: $0.8488 – 21 day upper Bollinger band
R 2: $0.8445 – High Oct 24
R 1: $0.8414 – High Nov 6
Latest price: $0.8345
S 1: $0.8268 – Low Nov 15
S 2: $0.8233 – Low Nov 14
S 3: $0.8176 – 200 day moving average
S 4: $0.8159 – Low Sept 16
Fresh 6 week lows for the AUD/NZD to end the week keep the focus firmly on a retest of the 2013 lows. A close above Thursday’s high remains needed to relieve the immediate bearish focus while a close above the 21-DMA is now needed to shift overall focus higher. The falling 21 day lower Bollinger band comes in around NZ$1.1230 with oscillation around the lower Bollinger band expected to continue while NZ$1.1305 caps.
R 4: NZ$1.1448 – 100 day moving average
R 3: NZ$1.1406 – 21 day moving average
R 2: NZ$1.1388 – Previous daily support now resistance
R 1: NZ$1.1305 – High Nov 14
Latest price: NZ$1.1229
S 1: NZ$1.1192 – 2013 Low July 31
S 2: NZ$1.0936 – Low Oct 24 2008
S 3: NZ$1.0893 – Low Oct 16 2008
S 4: NZ$1.0654 – 2008 Low Oct 9 2008
A bullish close for AUD/JPY to end last week with the pair closing above the 21-DMA and marginally beneath the high for the day/week. A close back below the Y93.29 level that previously capped is needed to relieve the current bullish focus that is initially targeting a test of the Y94.34-58 region with the 200-DMA noted at Y94.58. Daily Slow Stochastic and RSI studies are correcting higher and are supportive of the bullish case.
R 4: Y95.67 – Monthly high Oct 22
R 3: Y94.89 – 21 day upper Bollinger band
R 2: Y94.58 – 200 day moving average
R 1: Y94.34 – High Oct 24
Latest price: Y94.05
S 1: Y93.29 – Previous daily resistance now support
S 2: Y92.33 – Low Nov 13
S 3: Y92.14 – 38.2% Fibonacci retracement Y86.43-95.67
S 4: Y91.48 – 100 day moving average
EUR/AUD continues to hold above initial support despite ending last week on a bearish note. We continue to look for a close below Thursday’s low to end hopes of a break of the key A$1.4558 resistance level and see initial focus shift lower to a test of the Nov 11 low and then the Nov monthly low beneath. A close above the key A$1.4558 level is needed to see the pair target retests of the 2013 high.
R 4: A$1.4757 – Previous daily support now resistance
R 3: A$1.4558 – High Sept 4 & 27
R 2: A$1.4529 – High Oct 29
R 1: A$1.4477 – High Nov 14
Latest price: A$1.4381
S 1: A$1.4374 – Low Nov 14
S 2: A$1.4313 – 21 day moving average
S 3: A$1.4230 – Low Nov 11
S 4: A$1.4056 – Low Nov 7
After numerous failures at the falling daily channel top and 55-DMA, USD/KRW has slipped lower once again with daily tech studies correcting from overbought levels. Immediate focus is now on a test of the Nov 6 low which has supported so far in Nov. Overall the 55-DMA and falling daily channel top remain key and while they cap potential exists for a break to fresh 2013 lows and then the 2011 lows beneath.
R 4: Krw1091.1 – Previous daily support now resistance
R 3: Krw1081.1 – Previous daily support now resistance
R 2: Krw1073.4 – 55 day moving average
R 1: Krw1070.2 – High Nov 14
Latest price: Krw1062.6
S 1: Krw1059.0 – Low Nov 6
S 2: Krw1055.9 – 21 day lower Bollinger band
S 3: Krw1054.5 – 2013 low Jan 11
S 4: Krw1048.3 – 2011 low Aug 1
USD/SGD: Initial resistance is noted at Friday’s high with immediate focus remaining on a test of the Sgd1.2406-21 region and the 21-DMA noted at Sgd1.2421. A close above Friday’s high is needed to relieve the bearish focus and see the 200-DMA targeted once more. Below Sgd1.2406 is needed to see the May monthly low targeted. Overbought daily tech studies are threatening to correct lower adding weight to the renewed bearish case
R 4: Sgd1.2581 – High Sept 30
R 3: Sgd1.2540 – 38.2% Fibonacci of 1.2860-1.2342
R 2: Sgd1.2533 – 200 day moving average
R 1: Sgd1.2495 – High Nov 15
Latest price: Sgd1.2445
S 1: Sgd1.2424 – 21 day moving average
S 2: Sgd1.2406 – Low Nov 5
S 3: Sgd1.2330 – Low May 10
S 4: Sgd1.2268 – Monthly low May 9
