AUD/USD continues to bounce from ahead of the 100-DMA while remaining capped on bounces ahead of the Nov 11 high. Daily tech studies remain oversold but a close back above the $0.9424 level is needed to relieve the immediate bearish focus while back above the 21-DMA is needed to shift focus to tests of the 200-DMA. The $0.9221 Sept 10 low remains key support with a close below confirming a break of the 100-DMA
R 4: $0.9509 – 21 day moving average
R 3: $0.9475 – High Nov 8
R 2: $0.9424 – Previous daily support now resistance
R 1: $0.9393 – High Nov 11
Latest price: $0.93120
S 1: $0.9269 – 100 day moving average
S 2: $0.9221 – Low Sept 10
S 3: $0.9195 – 61.8% Fibonacci of $0.8850-0.9754
S 4: $0.9117 – Low Sept 5
NZD/USD managed a brief spike above the 21-DMA before pulling back to be little changed from this time yesterday. The $0.8159-77 region now remains key support with a close below needed to see focus shift lower to the $0.7685 2013 low. While the $0.8159-77 region supports potential remains for further spikes back towards the $0.8414-45 region. Initial support is now noted at Thursday’s low.
R 4: $0.8509 – 21 day upper Bollinger band
R 3: $0.8445 – High Oct 24
R 2: $0.8414 – High Nov 6
R 1: $0.8333 – 21 day moving average
Latest price: $0.8278
S 1: $0.8233 – Low Nov 14
S 2: $0.8177 – 200 day moving average
S 3: $0.8159 – Low Sept 16
S 4: $0.8094 – 100 day moving average
Fresh 6 week lows for the AUD/NZD continue to keep the focus firmly on a retest of the 2013 lows. A close above yesterday’s high is now needed to relieve the immediate bearish focus while a close above the 21-DMA is now needed to shift overall focus higher. The falling 21 day lower Bollinger band comes in around NZ$1.1250 with oscillation around the lower Bollinger band expected to continue while NZ$1.1305 caps.
R 4: NZ$1.1460 – 100 day moving average
R 3: NZ$1.1411 – 21 day moving average
R 2: NZ$1.1388 – Previous daily support now resistance
R 1: NZ$1.1305 – High Nov 14
Latest price: NZ$1.1253
S 1: NZ$1.1192 – 2013 Low July 31
S 2: NZ$1.0936 – Low Oct 24 2008
S 3: NZ$1.0893 – Low Oct 16 2008
S 4: NZ$1.0654 – 2013 Low Oct 9 2008
AUD/JPY: After dipping below the 55-DMA on Wednesday the pair has bounced from the Y92.33 low with the 21 day lower Bollinger and Ichimoku cloud base just below, to take out the previous initial resistance, relieving the previous bearish pressure. A close above the 21-DMA remains needed to see focus ratchet higher to the 200-DMA and then the Oct monthly highs above. Back below Y92.14 is now needed to kick start bearish momentum.
R 4: Y94.95 – 21 day upper Bollinger band
R 3: Y94.59 – 200 day moving average
R 2: Y94.34 – High Oct 24
R 1: Y93.58 – 21 day moving average
Latest price: Y93.15
S 1: Y92.33 – Low Nov 13
S 2: Y92.14 – 38.2% Fibonacci retracement Y86.43-95.67
S 3: Y91.44 – 100 day moving average
S 4: Y91.32 – Hourly support Oct 10
EUR/AUD dipped below the previous initial support and we now look to Thursday’s low as initial support. Of some concern are the pauses around the A$1.4477 level with key resistance noted above. We will look for a close below Thursday’s low to relieve the current bullish focus that is targeting a test of the A$1.4558 level and see immediate focus shift to the 21-DMA and then the Nov 7 low beneath.
R 4: A$1.4757 – Previous daily support now resistance
R 3: A$1.4558 – High Sept 4 & 27
R 2: A$1.4529 – High Oct 29
R 1: A$1.4477 – High Nov 14
Latest price: A$1.4444
S 1: A$1.4374 – Low Nov 14
S 2: A$1.4303 – 21 day moving average
S 3: A$1.4230 – Low Nov 11
S 4: A$1.4056 – Low Nov 7
After numerous failures at the falling daily channel top and 55-DMA, USD/KRW has slipped lower once again with daily tech studies having approached overbought levels. Immediate focus is now on a test of the 21-DMA with the pair having continued to close above this level since breaking above earlier in the month. Overall the 55-DMA and falling daily channel top remain key and while they cap potential exists for a break to fresh 2013 lows.
R 4: Krw1091.1 – Previous daily support now resistance
R 3: Krw1081.1 – Previous daily support now resistance
R 2: Krw1074.3 – 55 day moving average
R 1: Krw1070.2 – High Nov 14
Latest price: Krw1068.8
S 1: Krw1064.4 – 21 day lower Bollinger band
S 2: Krw1059.0 – Low Nov 6
S 3: Krw1054.5 – 2013 low Jan 11
S 4: Krw1048.3 – 2011 low Aug 1
USD/SGD: Lower lows and highs continued for a second consecutive day as daily tech studies begin to correct from overbought levels. Initial focus is now noted at Thursday’s high with immediate focus remaining on a test of the Sgd1.2406-21 region and the 21-DMA noted at Sgd1.2421. A close above Thursday’s high is needed to relieve the bearish focus and see the 200-DMA targeted once more. Below Sgd1.2406 is needed to see the May monthly low targeted.
R 4: Sgd1.2581 – High Sept 30
R 3: Sgd1.2540 – 38.2% Fibonacci of 1.2860-1.2342
R 2: Sgd1.2532 – 200 day moving average
R 1: Sgd1.2490 – High Nov 14
Latest price: Sgd1.2468
S 1: Sgd1.2421 – 21 day moving average
S 2: Sgd1.2406 – Low Nov 5
S 3: Sgd1.2330 – Low May 10
S 4: Sgd1.2268 – Monthly low May 9
