After remaining capped on attempts higher at the 21-DMA last week the AUD/USD continued its move lower, dipping below both the 55-DMA ($0.9376) and 21 day lower Bollinger band ($0.9373) before closing marginally above. Immediate focus is on tests of the layers of support noted in the $0.9221-86 region including the 100-DMA. A close above Friday’s high is needed to relieve the immediate bearish focus while above the 21-DMA is needed to shift focus higher.
R 4: $0.9585 – Hourly resistance Oct 28
R 3: $0.9542 – 21 day moving average
R 2: $0.9510 – Hourly resistance Nov 7
R 1: $0.9475 – High Nov 8
Latest price: $0.9384
S 1: $0.9302 – 50.0% Fibonacci retracement of $0.8850-0.9574
S 2: $0.9286 – Low Sept 30
S 3: $0.9266 – 100 day moving average
S 4: $0.9221 – Low Sept 10
NZD/USD: The failure to take out or even test the $0.8445 Oct 24 high last week has seen the kiwi correct lower with immediate focus now on a test of the key layers of support in the $0.9159-90 support region. A close back above the 21-DMA is needed to relieve the immediate bearish focus while back above last week’s $0.8414 high is needed to shift overall focus higher once more. Below $0.8159 sees focus shift lower to the $0.7685 2013 low.
R 4: $0.8519 – 21 day upper Bollinger band
R 3: $0.8445 – High Oct 24
R 2: $0.8414 – High Nov 6
R 1: $0.8353 – 21 day moving average
Latest price: $0.8258
S 1: $0.8216 – 55 day moving average
S 2: $0.8190 – Low Oct 30
S 3: $0.8179 – 200 day moving average
S 4: $0.8159 – Low Sept 16
The move lower in the AUD/NZD has paused ahead of the Oct 14 low, bouncing back towards the NZ$1.1388 level that previously supported with overbought daily tech studies having corrected back to more neutral levels. A close above the 21-DMA remains needed to relieve the immediate bearish focus while back above the 100-DMA is needed to shift focus to tests of the Oct monthly highs. Initial focus remains on a test of the Oct 14 low.
R 4: NZ$1.1527 – Hourly resistance Oct 29
R 3: NZ$1.1479 – 100 day moving average
R 2: NZ$1.1425 – 21 day moving average
R 1: NZ$1.1388 – Previous daily support now resistance
Latest price: NZ$1.1355
S 1: NZ$1.1302 – Low Oct 14
S 2: NZ$1.1292 – 21 day lower Bollinger band
S 3: NZ$1.1261 – Monthly Low Oct 3
S 4: NZ$1.1192 – Monthly Low July 31
AUD/JPY: The sharp move lower from ahead of the Y94.34 Oct 24 high has so far paused ahead of the 55-DMA, lower 21 day Bollinger band and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. The pair bounced a little to end last week but we will look for a close above the 21-DMA to relieve the pressure on the Y92.14-30 support region. Below Y92.14 sees focus shift lower to the Y90.11-90.67 support region
R 4: Y94.97 – 21 day upper Bollinger band
R 3: Y94.66 – 200 day moving average
R 2: Y94.34 – High Oct 24
R 1: Y93.74 – 21 day moving average
Latest price: Y93.05
S 1: Y92.30 – 55 day moving average
S 2: Y92.14 – 38.2% Fibonacci retracement Y86.43-95.67
S 3: Y91.32 – Hourly support Oct 10
S 4: Y91.05 – 50% Fibonacci retracement Y86.43-95.67
EUR/AUD traded at fresh 4 month lows Thursday before bouncing back towards the 21-DMA to end the week. A close above the 21-DMA remains needed to ease the bearish focus, while back above the 100-DMA remains need to see focus return to tests of the A$1.4529-58 resistance region. The key to further topside remains the A$1.4558 highs from Sept 4 and 27.
R 4: A$1.4558 – High Sept 4 & 27
R 3: A$1.4529 – High Oct 29
R 2: A$1.4405 – 100 day moving average
R 1: A$1.4272 – 21 day moving average
Latest price: A$1.4229
S 1: A$1.4063 – 21 day lower Bollinger band
S 2: A$1.4056 – Low Nov 7
S 3: A$1.3874 – Monthly Low July 10
S 4: A$1.3802 – Low June 7
USD/KRW: The close above the 21-DMA has relieved the previous bearish pressure while a close above the Krw1069.3 level remains needed to see focus shift higher to layers of resistance in the Krw1078.3-1091.1 region including the falling daily channel top, 55-DMA and alternating daily support/resistance level. The 2013 low remains key support with a break lower targeting the falling daily channel base
R 4: Krw1091.1 – Alternating daily support/resistance
R 3: Krw1081.1 – Previous daily support now resistance
R 2: Krw1077.4 – 55 day moving average
R 1: Krw1069.3 – Previous daily support now resistance
Latest price: Krw1067.2
S 1: Krw1059.0 – Low Nov 6
S 2: Krw1054.5 – 2013 low Jan 11
S 3: Krw1048.3 – 2011 low Aug 1
S 4: Krw1039.5 – Falling daily channel base
USD/SGD: A close below Tuesdays low remains needed to shift focus from a test of the Sgd1.2530-51 region where the 55 and 200-DMA’s are located and back to a test of the May 10 low. Since breaking above the 21-DMA (Sgd1.2413) last Monday the pair has spiked below but failed to record a close below the 21-DMA has provided support for the bullish case. A close below the Nov 5 low remains needed to confirm a break of the 21-DMA.
R 4: Sgd1.2540 – 38.2% Fibonacci of 1.2860-1.2342
R 3: Sgd1.2530 – 200 day moving average
R 2: Sgd1.2496 – High Oct 11
R 1: Sgd1.2476 – 21 day upper Bollinger band
Latest price: Sgd1.2465
S 1: Sgd1.2406 – Low Nov 5
S 2: Sgd1.2330 – Low May 10
S 3: Sgd1.2268 – Monthly low May 9
S 4: Sgd1.2224 – Low Jan 10
