Following yesterday’s break higher the 21-DMA is now noted as initial support for the NZD/USD with a close back below needed to relieve the immediate bullish focus that is initially targeting the Oct 24 high. A close below the 21-DMA sees focus return to retests of the $0.8159-0.8200 region. Daily tech studies are correcting from O/S level and should support on dips. While the 21-DMA supports overall focus in on a test of the Oct monthly high.
After failing at the 100-DMA Tuesday the AUD/NZD headed lower, taking out the 21 and 55-DMA’s and rising daily trend line. Initial resistance is noted on the hourly time frame at NZ$1.1373 but we will look for a close above the 21-DMA to relieve the immediate bearish focus while back above the 100-DMA is needed to shift focus to tests of the Oct monthly highs. While the 21-DMA caps initial focus is on a test of the Oct 14.
AUD/JPY: The close above the Y93.97 level combined with correcting oversold daily tech sees immediate focus shift to a test of the 200-DMA. A close above the Oct monthly high remains needed to ensure a clean break of the 200-DMA with focus then shifting higher to the Y97.93-99.48 region. Initial support is noted at Wednesday’s low with a close below needed to relieve bullish pressure while below Y92.39 shifts focus back to Y90.67-94.40.
EUR/AUD: After pausing ahead of the 21 day upper Bollinger band and the key A$1.4558 resistance level last week the pair has corrected lower, taking out 55, 100 and 21-DMA’s and remaining capped below the 21-DMA so far this week. The move lower has seen immediate focus shift to retests of the Oct monthly. Below the A$1.4128 support sees the A$1.3802-74 support region targeted. A close above the 21-DMA is needed to relieve the current bearish focus.
USD/KRW dipped below initial support overnight but has so far lacked follow through. A close above the 21-DMA remains needed relieve bearish pressure while a close above the Krw1069.3 level is needed to see focus shift higher to layers of resistance in the Krw1081.1-1091.1 region including the falling daily channel top, 55-DMA and alternating daily support/resistance level. The 2013 low remains key support.
USD/SGD: A close below Tuesdays low remains needed to shift focus from a test of the Sgd1.2530-51 where the 55 and 200-DMA’s are located and back to a test of the May 10 low. Since breaking above the 21-DMA (Sgd1.2416) on Monday the pair has spiked below but failed to record a close below which will provide some support for the bullish case. A close below the Nov 5 low is needed to confirm a break of the 21-DMA.