After pausing ahead of the 200-DMA last week the NZD/USD is bouncing back towards the 21-DMA with the pair marginally trading above Thursday’s high. A close above the 21-DMA would see immediate focus shift higher to tests of the $0.8445 Oct 24 high with above the $0.8541 Oct monthly high needed to see focus return to retests of the 2013 high. Daily tech studies are correcting from O/S levels which may limit any downside follow through.
The failure at the NZ$1.1579 level last week combined with correcting overbought daily tech studies have seen the AUD/NZD continue to trade below the 100-DMA. Layers of support remain in the NZ$1.1388-24 region including the rising daily trend line and 21 and 55-DMA’s. A close above the 100-DMA is needed to shift the immediate focus away from the layers of support below and back to retests of the Oct and then Sept monthly highs.
AUD/JPY continues to drift back towards initial resistance with a close above needed to see immediate focus turn to tests of the 200-DMA and then Oct monthly highs. The Y92.39-69 support region remains key with a close below seeing focus shift lower to layers of support in the Y90.67-91.40 region. Daily tech studies are looking to correct from O/S levels and may limit any downside follow through until they correct to more neutral levels.
EUR/AUD: After pausing ahead of the 21 day upper Bollinger band and the key A$1.4558 resistance level last week the pair has corrected lower, taking out 55, 100 and 21-DMA’s and closing below the 21-DMA on Friday. The move lower has seen immediate focus shift to retests of the Oct monthly low with the relatively flat 21 day lower Bollinger band noted just below. Below the A$1.4128 support sees the A$1.3802-74 support region targeted
USD/KRW: A close above the 21-DMA remains needed relieve bearish pressure while a close above the Krw1069.3 level is needed to see focus shift higher to layers of resistance in the Krw1081.1-1091.1 region including the falling daily channel top, 55-DMA and alternating daily support/resistance level. A close below the 2013 low is needed to reconfirm bearish focus and re-target the falling daily channel base.
USD/SGD: A close below Friday’s low remains needed to signal a false break higher and shift focus back to retests of the Sgd1.2330 low from May 10 with the pair currently hovering above the 21-DMA (Sgd1.2422). Potential now exists for a bigger bounce that sees the pair heading back to the 200-DMA as daily tech studies continue their correction from oversold levels and we will now look for a close above the Sgd1.2464 Oct 16 high for confirmation of a bigger bounce.